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Adoption

Back to the bell curve and exponential growth: adoption cycle goThe sixth is here and I want to remind people first and foremost that BTC doesn't have to do anything that we predict it will do. As a matter of fact if manipulation is as strong as some people believe then it is most certainly not going to do what the overwhelming masses believe. Just as it's best to buy when there is blood on the streets, it's going to be best to buy when every one else is selling. So let's see how plausible it is from here to get to $25k and even $30k. I'm going to put this in real simple math terms to show what the average daily growth needs to be to meet these goals. We are at just over $7.5k so I think with the volatility still in the market swings of a couple hundred dollars are still very likely. I'm going to also estimate that we only have about 180 days left this year. $25,000-$7000 = $18000 The amount that we need to increase to get to the end goal of the shorter trend-line. 180 days left in the year means that on average we only need to gain $100 dollars per day. $18000/180 days = $100. Gains and losses can be found in the 15 minute and 5 minute charts every now and then so for the daily chart to reflect this is really really plausible. $35,000-$7000 = $28000 The amount that we need to increase to get to the end goal of the second over-all trend-line. The simple 180 days again puts us at a gain of $156 rounding to the nearest dollar. $28000/180 days = $155.56 average increase per day. Now with these simple numbers, apply them to the bell curve that I've presented in the past and think about adoption. Are people running from bitcoin as a whole or adopting it even more on the whole. Use cases are still few but improvements keep coming. Even as a store of value, it is still going to increase in use for a while and that adoption rate is not going to be linear. Hence the reason I used parabolic lines. As for the two beacon examples of BTC and block chain being adopted...Taiwan and Korea. There are also a plethora of countries in turmoil where BTC is being adopted as a way to not use native fiat currency. All of this outside of the normal developed nations trying to make this more usable. Now with this said, $7000-$4000 = $3000. This $3000/180days = $16.67 dollars of loss per day over the next few months to take us down to $4000. It is really easy to see that a BTC price of $4000 is entirely plausible if things were linear, but for an adoption cycle to be exponentially increasing we would have to be on the downside of the bell curve to get there easily, and we would have to also see an agreement of sell-off between a lot of parties otherwise. For us to reach $4000 at this moment which I do believe is possible but unlikely, there would be a sell off great enough to counter act the adoption process and the reason I'm not worried about that is because if it happens that spring is going to be compressed under so much pressure that the bull run afterwards will dwarf what we saw in 2017. I don't believe that it would happen right after the fall because a lot of people are going to lose trust in the system, but after it settles again there would be a massive buying frenzy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
Back to the basics...again.My posts are going to continue to be really simple because I believe in fundamentals and I believe in the long term. My first chart shows how no change happens if we simply recover by the end of the year. The chart won't change much if we go into a full on downtrend and lose even more market cap as well. Some people will continue to hold and some people will continue to short-sell, but it's still of no consequence. The second chart shows just how much a newer high changes over all perspective. If we establish $25000 by years end you can see that what I call noise begins to minimize more and more. The third chart shows that in the long run that if the market continues to grow, all of this up and down from January to May will be nothing to even mention other than it was a historic year in the continuous evolution of cryptocurrencies. I stopped only half way into 2019 because the bottom line becomes more and more non-existent. Now the parabolic line that I've created should actually be considered part of a bell curve. If you believe that these new currencies are in the infant stage, then guess what, this bell curve is barely starting which means we have a long way to go up before we even consider it falling. A lot of people say that crypto won't be around or bitcoin won't be around in 100 years. So let's say that we are 8 years into a 50 year peak. That leaves us 42 year of growth before we actually start a decline. Even taking into account the slowing of growth at the end that leaves an easy 20 years of consistent exponential growth. 20 years at even 300% growth is maddening. On the other hand, if we are on a 20 year cycle and we are almost at the peak that mean we will see slow growth till 2020 and then we start our decline. Because we still haven't reached our final coin in mining of bitcoin I don't see it ending that quickly. As far as pre-mined coins go, they might be a great indicator as to what will happen after the last coin is mined. Hopefully failure isn't in the cards. Last of all, let's say that there ends up being a coin for every country in the world and by some miracle we have shifts in GDP and wealth gap so that all coins become equal. Very unlikely scenario I admit, but using comparative advantage and looking as to how with the right incentive, we might actually be able to pull this off, let's take a look at global GDP. Divide it by 100+ countries. This would give us a baseline of what we could see in crypto-growth for any given coin. I'm not going to attempt that calculation this post, because I'm sure it will be really controversial and a lot of people will criticize it, but I'm planting a seed for thought. Hope my wild ideas are reaching a few people in the end. Till next time.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
Are bears actually bulls in disguise?I'm posting a chart with absolutely no trend-lines, pennants, or any other sort of TA attached for one simple reason; I want to turn down the noise and just reflect on what's happening. Imagine a spring. When you compress or pull the spring and release, it moves back and forth until it finds equilibrium again. The market also acts as such except the spring itself is constantly changing. When we see a series of trend-lines that have the up and down motion inside it, that is the motion of the spring after release. The breaks in trend line is when the market has created a new spring right before release. This is when TA can tell us whether or not the spring will continue it's back and forth motion or if there is a change to the structure. In the last part of 2017 we saw the spring structure change, pulled, and then released. If there was a constant like in physics, we saw the spring bottom out at about 5,9k as we have not seen it drop below that in almost 4 months. So why would we bounce out of this structure. One: people will intentionally weaken the structure or people will intentionally build the structure, the structure being the spring. To the question I pose, it seems like an overwhelming number of bears sell coins knowing or with the intent of buying cheaper as to accumulate more of almost any crypto-currency. Essentially you shock or weaken the structure but understand that it can probably rebuild and put you in a better position. However, after reading their ideas it truly feels that most still expect exponential increase in the long run. So perhaps instead of saying that some one is a perma-bear maybe we should shift perspective and realize that most are just simply smart enough to trade the trend. I think most people are missing a huge point by panicking or not backing up and looking at factors outside of normal trading. Yes there are plenty of whales out there and market makers that are probably consistently manipulating the market, but even whales can't buy countries or compete with most countries GDPs. There are entire countries that are building on blockchain and crypto-currencies as we speak. The big institutions all over the world are prepping trading desks and getting their plans locked down. Major front desk persons have left some of these bigger players to work on their own projects so from the inside they know what is coming. So now ask yourself this. Can all the whales in the world compete with the rest of the world. On the macro level I would have to say it is an extreme and overwhelming "no." They can hinder and slow down or speed up a process, but in the end if we see these currencies come to fruition, not just used as a store of value, then what is a billionaire compared to trillions of dollars of flow of products. The fact that people are more worried about smaller whales and manipulators than global controllers is definitely missing the forest for the trees.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
3
BTC becoming tech-as-usual (Loosely, for now) On this chart: BTCUSD (candles) NASDAQ Composite (blue stepped line) for (loose) reference BTC Moving Average (white: 50D, Orange: 150D, Yellow: 300D) BTC Trends (Green: UP from lows, Red: down from highs) BTC Fib retracement from 2017-12-17 ($19891) down to 2018-02-06 ($6000) BTC Fib retracement from 2018-02-06 ($6000) down to 2018-02-20 ($11788) It never was a crash. I repeat: this was not a crash . It was a healthy correction, which we'll call a sanity/reality check . It seems like the end of an era, which we'll probably come to know as the "innovator" phase in the S-cycle of cryptocurrencies . "Consideration" has ended and we and have begun "investigation" of DLT (Digital Ledger Technologies, a.k.a "cryptos" for the layman), as illustrated by the intensified interest of officials (from authorities to public systems-makers, e.g. governments and central banks). Bitcoin and friends are no longer exotic libertarian proofs-of-concepts; more specifically the underlying tech is about to become yet-another-department in most states and corporations. Job offers are rising fast. We'll soon see a slew of degrees as early standardization takes place. There is one implicit (albeit loose, nascent) correlation that we can observe emerging during the last six months. I've displayed the NASDAQ Composite (Stepped Thick Blue line) on the chart. It's pretty obvious that BTC no longer makes moves in a pure vacuum. Some will say that Futures helped movement correlation; I won't speculate on the why and will leave it at the how for all to subjectively see. Next, let's observe the untenable rise (Frenzy) that peaked on Dec, 17 ($19891). I've retraced the Fib (called 6 shades of red... appropriate don't you think? ) down to the low ($6000 on Feb, 6) fifty-one days later. Guess what the 50 Days Moving Average (White line) is currently tangential to? You've guessed it, the big fat downtrend line from said peak (Dashed Red line), which two days ago crossed the 38.2% retracement (Red Arrow) . Just this market's way of telling us that no, this X-mas spike shouldn't have been , were we rational. This is FOMO/FUD for you, and again, let's leave it at that. If you're trading, you know: General Public + Hype(r) Media = Spiky Charts . Name of this game. They thought that for crypto, sky wasn't the limit? That it would go above and beyond, to the moon ? Well, guess again: this white moving average is well-deserved cloud-line. Above: high HODLERS , below: sentient beings. Leave the damn moon alone! Now when we cross the cloud line, eventually, we'll do it as it should be: like a cruising jet-liner. Safe, steady, and sound. The 150D Moving Average (Orange line, like bitcoin's logo, that must mean something right? ) is boring. It's exactly where we stand in price now (Orange Arrow; I chose that value for this very reason, 150D = 5 months, back to late September's low point before we hit mainstream media). It's the one line that's real in this chart, the chosen one that deserves to cross the red downtrend, and breakout from the Fibonacci's. Lastly the 300D Moving Average (Yellow line) meets the long Up Trend (Dashed Green line) right when it meets the price (Feb 6, green arrow). This is the best candidate for a sane base valuation of BTC: I have no doubt that it isn't worth any less on that date. Call it a baseline support for DLT . (In the first comment below I'll quickly discuss Volume Profile, in conjunction with averages and retracements.)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by PhiChris
1
LITECOIN TO $1000 THIS YEAR?!Litecoin's ATH on coinbase reached around $420 in accordance with Bitcoin hitting it's ATH of course. It's mega bull run boosted it by 700% in 35 days. Charlie Lee and the Litecoin Foundation are prioritising the adoption of the coin and the number of platforms and merchant processors supporting LTC is increasing. As a result, I feel that once the cryptocurrency market regains bullish momentum, Litecoin will increase in price as extortionately as it did before. If the price can recover and stabilise from here, another 700% increase would take the Price up to the $1000 region which fits nicely within the parallel channel. However, LTC is reliant on BTC and succeeds by being cheaper and more efficient so if this were to change or bitcoin was to be regulated in the upcoming months then LTC may experience the bears once more. In the short term I feel there may be some more downward movement to come perhaps to retest the support of the parallel channel before upward movement. But, if LTC fails to breakout then there will be more bears to come!
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by UnselfishStops
DASH in parabolaThis is a big call. The median parabolic curve is a big draw for critical price path and discovery, furthermore the upper and lower both having a few testings. The more testing and we see the better. Any breaks to the lower line bull run over. But so far we have precise indication and obedience. Fear money running to Dash, from BTC. Just check both charts, clear syncing with the recent hack. Institutional money will favor the relatively bare order books, a lot more market cap to come. Network effect in full swing. Dash's huge marketing budget and general the favor for privacy atm all helps. I called a $1000 Dash by January 2018 back in July, still got a way to go but we are getting there. 2018 should be an important year for crypto and I can see Dash scaling the ranks and outperforming the market.
BITTREX:DASHUSDLong
by cryptodavinci
3
BTC Mass Adoption?BTC is getting crazy with this buying frenzy! I wonder if this is the next group of mass adopters using CoinBase and the like. There was a massive spike in volume at the end of OCT. Maybe there is a lot of BTC on hold till hits accounts. Just a thought since bank transfers take so long and who wants to pay extra fees to get it instantly. My thinking is we will see some sideways action for awhile till the fork comes up and everyone starts freaking out. Unless even more people jump in the of course BTC will rocket some more. Either way BTC needs to give up some of this spotlight and let the alts recover. Good news about that spotlight, its burning into everyones heads now and thats a win for cryptocurrencies!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PowderedToastMan
10