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4/17 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Last week we went 4/5 on predictions with SPY. Friday I said I wanted to see a push higher, which we did end up getting before closing as a failed 2U on the daily. The daily candle was decently neutral, but still is bearish due to it being a failed 2U. Going into Monday, I am hoping for some downside. We retraced over 50% of Thursday's range which leads me to believe we can create a compound engulfing day by breaking Thursday's low at 407.99. I am overall pretty neutral going into Monday because I think we closed strong on the week and could easily test last week's high. I think we have more reasons to be bearish on Monday though, which could make the week play out in a way where we see initial pullback or consolidation before testing weekly highs. At the end of the day, you can't and shouldn't fight the trend, so keep that in mind for the week. As we push into the 2nd half of the month, we can expect price action to be less volatile. I think this week will be very evident of whether we want to push to the 420 area, or begin a larger reversal. With the FED admitting they expect a recession in the fall/winter, I am curious to see how the markets will react as time progresses from now till the end of the year. Watchlist: I am starting a small challenge account this week, so the plays on my watchlists will be slightly different than my normal lists and main watches. As always though, I will keep the scanner for weekly and daily setups in the photo on my idea. Just look at potential 3-1 and potential 2-1 to see all setups. With that being said, I will keep an eye on everything on my scanners, but here is what I am specifically watching for tomorrow: RBLX - 3-1-2 Rev strat - Bullish PEP - 3-1 daily and 2-1 weekly - Neutral MSFT - 2-1 Daily + Broadening Formation on the daily: Neutral KO - 2-1 Daily + BF on daily: Bearish PG - Same thing as KO and MSFT: Neutral COST - 3-1 Weekly - Bearish CAT - 3-1 Weekly - Bullish Main Watch: TSLA - Was last Friday's main watch. Never broke out RBLX - This setup is really good with minimal complaints from me. RBLX has been strong these past few weeks and I think it will continue to head higher. We are also sitting on a long rising trend line on the daily. What I am looking for is for us to break Friday's high and then target the high from last thursday to create a compound engulfing candle. This setup has potential to hit all the way up in the 53-54 range on a larger time frame, but for tomorrow we have solid potential for a 2-3% move on RBLX from entry. I will make a seperate post about RBLX with my charts for it because it would be a lot to explain otherwise so be sure to check that out. My Only concern with this setup is that it may need some pullback further before heading higher to follow suit with the broadening formation. This play will really be dependent on whether we break the high or low of Friday first, and also how much RBLX reacts to market movement assuming the markets follow our bearish bias. Just a few things to consider Previous Main Watch: PYPL: Winner. Ran over 250% from entry. Absolute banger TSLA: Never broke out of 3-1 so now is 3-1-1 setup. Not a win or loss. Stats From Last Weeks Watchlists: 4/5 Spy Predictions 4/6 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: PYPL (250%+) Personal Stats: 2/4 On the week Overall Green Kept losses small and wins big. Even with a 50% win rate we were still solid green on the week. Let's do it again this week Personal Notes from this week: - Patience is key to success as evident by my trades this week. - Broadening Formations are incredibly accurate on bigger scales. Cannot recommend researching Broadening Formations enough. They are a cheat code to trading
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
4
230% vs 110% returns which one will you choose ?So I recently got an Apple Watch to keep track of my fitness goal. It can help track my running distance and better still, my swimming log as well. It is pretty cool except for one thing I noticed. It syncs with your Apple Phone and all your apps that are in there will automatically sync with your Apple Watch. So, I have finance, fitness, social media, etc apps that keep sending me notification. It can be pretty annoying and disturbing to become a slave to these tech items, haha. I believe the trends globally is quite the same maybe for a few European countries like Switzerland ( I could be wrong) Finland, Norway,etc. Taking a train to work, I can see almost 95% of the commuters glued to their phones. What happened to reading a book , I mean a hardcopy book? Sadly, all the bookstores in Singapore are closing one after another. Read article here Anyway, this trend is so massive and has become a part of everyone's daily lives that buying its stock to me is a no brainer. Just taking the last 3 years performance, buying Apple shares will generate a 230% returns versus 110% returns for SPX500 index. What other deep seated trends can you identify in your own country ? Find the Apple alike competitor in your own country and buy it.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by dchua1969
28
Apple to find support at previous resistance?Apple - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 156.61 (stop at 151.11) This is curremtly an actively traded stock. Our bespoke resistance of 157.50 has been clearly broken. Previous resistance at 156.00 now becomes support. The primary trend remains bullish. We look to buy dips. Our profit targets will be 170.66 and 172.66 Resistance: 162.50 / 165.00 / 166.84 Support: 159.78 / 156.00 / 154.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by VantageMarkets
Apple by EOYApple based on current 119D movement. I still believe Apple is heading below $100 this year. It took a tad longer to see a drop because of corporate buybacks but that wont change the overall outlook for Apple. Apple's price move from 2018 downward coincides with the Feds tapering. The August 2019 rally also coincides directly with the Fed increasing QE in August 2019. You can see somewhat normal movement until the price breaks out of the channel, although QE was introduced in 2008. No QE = no more rallying. More QE = hyperinflation. Simple as that. I think the Fed will let equities take a bath to save the dollar... but than again, who knows? Data Points: MACD Crossed RSI has room to come down Q1 Guidance was grim
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by WorldEconomics
9
Apple Is this market ready to break? This was a significant rebound, almost unimaginably unrealistic... 5-weeks of straight rallying through the tidal waves of bad economic news, rate hikes, QT, geopolitical tensions, ect... Let's see what holds for August and September, which are two months that aren't great for stocks. If you do short, go to at least the end of September. RSI and MACD are supporting a sell off. MA puts Apple at $160, and the Lower price of BB is $151. Was this a giant head and shoulder? First shoulder December 2021, head at March 2022, and now the right shoulder at August 2022? Hmmm
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by WorldEconomics
4
SPY S&P SPX - Selling SoonHere we are in this bounce in the markets. We are seeing lower highs, lower lows. It is the best time to get into a position now. If you look at the timelines from peak to sell, its about 2-months. We're about overbought, and the economic data coming out is pretty horrible. Retail, autos, housing, buying and consumer sentiment, debt, revolving credit, personal debt... all these point to pain in the short term. Look at the 2/10YR inversion, which is surpassing passed recessions. Even the 3-month is far surpassing the 30YR. Cracks are forming everywhere and we are starting to see defaults and bankruptcies become a reality. Even IF the Fed softens and pivots, it wont make a difference. Statistics are showing that people are barely scraping by. Don't be caught off guard! Look at the data, not the delusional hosts on CNBC which will never admit the truth until we are deep in a crisis. This sell off or "crash" is a bit different than other ones. With most of the economic data worse off than 2008, the markets are not reflecting the economy whatsoever. The markets should be far lower, but, it seems that intervention of some sort is taking place... for how long, its to be seen. I would have liked to see a drop of 30%, rebound of 10%, 40% in wave 2, rebound of 15% but it seems like like markets are declining far slower than logical economists thought.
AMEX:SPYShort
by WorldEconomics
6
Tipple Top or Dead Cat BounceWe're taking a look at Apple here. This ticker has been known as a quality stock that investors flock when other tech stocks take a hit. MACD is playing right there in the middle and this could go either way. Money Flow Index is showing that there could be more up to go. Markets have been rocked by the recent banking crisis that is still not over. We're now learning of First Republic continually collapsing, even with backstops and liquidity pledges from big banks. Perhaps this crisis isn't over yet, and with bets of a 25 basis point hike Wednesday, this could snowball into a bigger crisis, but it's one to watch. Central banks are doing all they can to keep this bubble alive, but with declining economies, it's now a matter of time. Manufacturing, retail, housing, autos, are all down, and continuing downward. Joblessness claims continue upward. Layoffs are increasing. You know how it goes... thoughts?
NASDAQ:AAPL
by WorldEconomics
NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire WorthlessEver since NVDIA went up after its February earnings call, it seems that social media traders have been afflicted with a fetish for trying to short it. There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, they say, such as NVIDIA is trading at blah blah times P/E, AI doesn't actually need chips beyond the initial machine learning phase, and of course the top reason that everything should be bearish: the Federal Reserve isn't pivoting! None of that matters. One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I can share with you is that fundamentals do not matter in the way that you're led to believe that they matter. If the markets really worked that way, then there would neither be bubbles nor would there be undervalued stocks. If everything algorithmically traded in line with what "it was truly worth" you would have no opportunity at all to make (lose) any money, would feel bored with the computer, and would go outside. The fundamentals to the market at large right now, including with the recent collapse of regional banks and Silicon Valley Bank, is that everything in this world is revolving around "relationships" that companies, people, organizations, and communities have established with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party. This especially includes what happened during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and the world's response to the disease. Too many people have, for the sake of the economic and recreational benefits that the Chinese Government has offered, imported the CCP's cultural revolution stuff back home. And yet, the CCP under the Jiang Zemin faction is guilty of almost 24 years of persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong meditation, which involves the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting as a form of torture (Kilgour-Matas Report). And the result is a lot of business and social practices have developed under the Party's method that amount to cancers festering in the world's body. If you want to get rid of a cancer, you have to not only cut it out, but get rid of the root cause and the behaviors and habits that give the disease the environment it needs to lump around. The thing about NVIDIA is that it has a story. Stories matter more than fundamentals in the short term. In the long term, fundamentals matter more than stories. This is because a small group of whales needs a pretext in order to bait in a large number of fish and a moderate amount of sharks to feed on, and this operation is a short to midterm play that revolves around the longer term fundamentals, which cannot be avoided. NVIDIA's story is that there's a cool Chinese guy with grey hair running the company wearing a leather jacket. He says that he can sell a lot of chips right now and quickly exceed the very worthless crypto mining boom because GPT4 and STABLE DIFFUSION and the AI REVOLUTION need GRAPHICS CARDS more than rich kids need $1,800 graphic cards to be addicted to video games instead of having jobs and girlfriends. Well, I'm a price action trader. I think the charts show the truth of the markets and their combined understanding and the candles reflect the operation in play. Zoom out, is what they always say: NVIDIA on the monthly, when it dumped in October, took out a long term low from 2021. Taking out a low all on its own doesn't mean much, but my friends, when a highcap takes out a big low AND THEN ALSO bounces 74% over the next three months, and instead of heading towards making new lows, goes ahead and makes a new high the next month, why are you shorting something that's going up? Look at this pattern on the weekly and ask yourself what you really find appealing about buying puts on this besides hearing all the rabble in signal groups and on social media yell about HOW OVERPRICED this stock is and how IT SHOULD GO TO ZERO. IT'S GOING TO ZERO. And even more so now with NVDIA closing at ~$270, this is the worst time to trade it. You've already missed the boat to go long, and going short has destroyed a lot of accounts. You're at the apex of an inflection point, and the scenarios on both sides are very simple: 1. If it's bearish, then the MM is short from the early '22 pivot parked under $300, and bears are about to get what they want. 2. But that pivot is right under the $300 psychological level where big short positions now have their stops 3. If NVDIA is truly bullish, it will take out that pivot, sweep $300 and then is likely to retrace 4. But for bears, it doesn't make sense to give them a way out and retrace like that. 5. Thus, the most annoying thing the MM can do is to park price in this $255-275 range for several weeks and kill everyone's put and call premiums while selling the contracts 6. This means no retrace. Instead, when everyone's lost all their money going short, and it doesn't dump and NVDIA does go over $300 in May or June, price doesn't look back and sets a new all time high 7. Bears bamboozled and in disbelief about how a tech stock can set a new ATH during FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES If you want to make money in trading, you need to put risk management at the top of your priority list. What's really implied by this is that you stop gambling. The way you stop gambling is by changing your heart and your intentions in trading. You have to stop wanting to get rich. If you try to change your life with gambling then you will, as a result, ruin your life. Literally everyone knows this and yet people still try to make their lives "happy" through gambling. What you're trying to so is solidly and systematically increase your account on a compounding basis. To do this, you need winning trades and not losing trades. To do this, this means you need less trades, because let's be honest, most of your trades are losers. In order to achieve all of the above, you need to quit listening to influencers and Discord and Telegram signal groups, delete the Marxist social influencing website Reddit, and start thinking for yourself. You have to understand that a lot of these people do not trade themselves. They make their money grifting you for subscriptions and from behind the scenes for pushing certain things on their followers. You think from looking at how they talk and how they act and what they say that they're making a lot of money and are very successful, but almost all of them are either total frauds or losing traders. Stop looking up to "heroes." There are no heroes. There's just you and your life, and you're in a very harsh and adversarial environment where the moral standard is very low and the people around you have very, very poor values. You need to make sure that your moral standard is high and that you have values and ideals that you can stand in front of your grandchildren with and hold your head high. Also, genuine winning traders are both few and far between, and generally do not carry a high profile. People who have survived in the markets for a while also understand both how easy it is and how painful it is to lose money. They understand how hard money is to get it back once it's been lost. And thus, they aren't out there cowboying around. You shouldn't listen to what I tell you either, because you need to think for yourself. If you don't get sober and rational now, then when this world really changes as the Chinese Communist Party falls, a day which is extremely, extremely close, you won't have a chance to make it through the tribulation, because the requirement to pass through is that you have clean hands, a clean heart, and have chosen a bright future for yourself.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by LordWrymouth
4
AAPL: No longer the apple of the eyes of the investors EPS: $1.88 vs. $1.94 estimated, down 10.9% year over year Revenue: $117.15 billion vs. $121.10 billion estimated, down 5.49% year over year iPhone revenue: $65.78 billion vs. $68.29 billion estimated, down 8.17% year over year Mac revenue: $7.74 billion vs. $9.63 billion estimated, down 28.66% year over year iPad revenue: $9.4 billion vs. $7.76 billion estimated, up 29.66% year over year Other Products revenue: $13.48 billion vs. $15.23 billion estimated, down 8.3% year over year Services revenue: $20.77 billion vs. $20.67 billion estimated, up 6.4% year over year Gross margin: 42.96% vs. 42.95% estimated
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by SWFguy
4/10 Watchlist + Notes Initial Thoughts - Solid week last week, questionably bullish this coming week, lots of finance/bank stocks report ER this week, CPI this week. SPY - On Wednesday I mentioned on my watchlist that I was cautiously bearish for a few reasons. Turned out my suspicions were valid because we pushed lower early on in the day Thursday before pumping the rest of the day to create a bullish engulfing daily candle. I was really hoping this wouldn't happen, but we play the cards that we are dealt. Going into next week, and specifically monday, I am looking for a move to the upside. I am still hoping we overall head lower on the week, but it seems like we could be due for a retest of that 412 level we touched on last week. I have upside targets loosely set at the 410 and 412 areas. I am still remaining cautious as we are still at a critical level on the longer time frames, CPI data comes out this week, and there are some heavy ER reports coming from the financial sector, which could all make this coming week very volatile. OVERALL BIAS: Skeptically Bullish. I think we test 410 for sure either in premarket or RTH. Once again, I am basing my bias on what is in front of us, and what makes the most sense for the next session. Expecting this week to be very volatile Watchlist + Bias: AAPL - 2-1 Daily: Neutral PFE - 2-1 Daily: Neutral BIDU - 2-1 Daily: Bearish PEP - 2-1 Daily: Bullish BABA - 2-1 Weekly: Bullish CRM - 2-1 Weekly: Neutral (Sitting at FVG on weekly) SQ - 3-1-1 Weekly: Bullish Main Watch: SQ - Was watching this one last Thursday and we didn't go anywhere. I have high hopes that we will break out to the upside this week. Entry around 70, stop below 66. Targets around the 80 and 83 area. Simple as that. More to be said about this one come end of day monday, but for now, we are going into monday off of a bullish engulfing candle on the daily. Previous main watch: SQ - not a winner or loser. Explanation above Stats from last weeks watchlists: 4/4 on SPY predictions 3/4 on Main Watch Plays. (technically 4/5 but im not counting thursday) Top winner: DOCU (400%+) Personal Stats: 4/5 Win/Loss (80% Winrate) Overall green week Slow start but finished well Good luck tomorrow. Watch SPY and VIX at all times throughout the week
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17