AAPL Short: Wave 1=Wave 5Well, based on my EW counts and Fibonacci extension, we have reached the target of the move up and it's time for it to go down.
Also note that the new high is NOT accompanied by an equivalent RSI(7) high. A divergence.
Also, this is all-time high. You need any reason for a better risk reward?
AAPL
APPLE Technical top at $210.Apple (AAPL) hit on Friday our $195.00 short-term target which we called on our latest November 12 analysis (see chart below):
The rally seems far from over as the recent pull-back turned out to be only a Bull Flag pattern, which typically prompts to a continuation of the trend. Being within a long-term Rising Wedge pattern, this pull-back resembles, even on 1D RSI terms, that of March 02, only on weaker strength (reasonably as the sequences get narrower towards the end of the pattern).
That first rally of the Wedged peaked just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. The current sequence's 1.382 Fib is at $210.00, which falls perfectly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Rising Wedge, and that is our medium-term target.
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AAPL awaiting breakout to next supply areaNASDAQ:AAPL consolidating tightly. Awaiting the next breakout to around $195 supply area.
Potentially looking at new highs after that.
These are my views and analysis and is only used for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor.
Nothing in the information posted here is intended to be or should be interpreted as trading advice.
MSFT headed previous swing highs?NASDAQ:MSFT pullback and consolidation seems to be over and breaking out to the upside. Targeting towards the previous swing highs around $385 area and possibly to a new all-time high after that? IF prices manage to breakthrough the previous swing highs. I'd say possibility is high.
These are my views and analysis and is only used for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor.
Nothing in the information posted here is intended to be or should be interpreted as trading advice.
Know Sure Thing: Navigating Trends and Volatility EffectivelyIn the realm of technical analysis, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator stands out as a robust tool for traders seeking to decipher market trends and manage volatility effectively. This momentum-based oscillator amalgamates multiple moving averages to offer a comprehensive perspective on market momentum across various timeframes.
Introduction to the Know Sure Thing (KST) Indicator
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is designed to unveil the market's underlying momentum, encompassing both short and long-term trends. The KST is a dynamic momentum oscillator rooted in the Rate of Change (ROC) principle. It amalgamates four distinct ROC timeframes, smoothing them via Simple Moving Averages. Consequently, the KST generates a fluctuating final value, oscillating above and below a Zero Line. Additionally, it incorporates a signal line, derived from an SMA of the KST line itself.
The moving average methodology of KST empowers traders with a tool capable of identifying both bullish and bearish trends, providing an encompassing view of market momentum shifts. Fundamentally, this indicator gauges momentum using the ROC across four price periods, aiding analysts in detecting divergences, overbought or oversold market conditions, and crossovers.
Understanding Trends with KST
The KST indicator is predominantly used to discern the strength and direction of market trends. When the KST line crosses above its signal line, it signifies a bullish trend shift, indicating a potential upward price movement. Conversely, when the KST line dips below the signal line, it suggests a bearish trend shift, signaling a potential downward price movement.
Similar to the MACD, when a crossover happens and the KST line crosses over the zero the overall signal can be considered to have a greater degree of confirmation.
Moreover, traders rely on crossovers and divergences within the KST indicator for confirming trend reversals or continuations. Bullish and bearish divergences between KST and price action can provide valuable insights into potential market movements, offering opportunities for traders to enter or exit positions.
Managing Volatility Using KST
Beyond trend identification, KST also assists in measuring market volatility. It enables traders to gauge the degree of volatility present in the market at any given time. Sharp spikes or fluctuations in KST readings often coincide with periods of increased market volatility. This information is crucial for traders as it aids in adapting their strategies to accommodate varying market conditions, thereby managing risk more effectively.
Practical Applications of KST
A practical application of KST involves combining its signals with other technical indicators, such as Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) or Relative Strength Index (RSI), to strengthen trade setups. For instance, if KST indicates a bullish crossover and MACD confirms the same, it enhances the confidence of a potential uptrend.
Additionally, traders use KST to identify bullish or bearish signals in conjunction with chart patterns. A bullish KST crossover alongside a bullish chart pattern like a "falling wedge" could reinforce the conviction for a long position.
Tips for Effective Utilization:
Effective utilization of the KST indicator requires a clear understanding of its strengths and limitations. Traders should consider experimenting with different settings and timeframes to find the optimal configuration that aligns with their trading strategies. Always implement some form of backtesting or paper trading to confirm that your strategy is in fact profitable.
The strengths of the KST indicator lies in its ability to offer a more complete view of market momentum. However, like any technical indicator, KST has limitations. During choppy or ranging markets, it might generate false or contradictory signals, leading to potentially misguided trading decisions. Traders should exercise caution and supplement KST readings with additional forms of analysis to mitigate the impact of its limitations.
It's paramount not to rely solely on a single indicator like the KST, but to corroborate KST signals with signals from other indicators or methods of analysis. A fortified approach involving multiple confirmatory signals, fundamental analysis, and risk management strategies strengthens trading decisions and minimizes potential false signals from any single indicator.
Conclusion:
The journey to mastering the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator involves continuous learning, experimentation with settings, and adapting to evolving market conditions. By staying adaptable, open to new strategies, and consistently refining trading methodologies, traders can harness the full potential of the KST to navigate trends and volatility effectively.
In summary, the KST serves as a valuable addition to traders' toolkits, empowering them to make better trading decisions. Remember, while the KST enhances market analysis, prudent risk management and a comprehensive trading approach remain pivotal for sustained success in the dynamic world of financial markets. Good luck and happy trading!
APPLE My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for APPLE is below:
The market is trading on 191.24 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 187.18
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
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🍂Fall – Fell – Fallen. S&P500 Technical Perspectives over Q3'23The US government is well on its way to going into lockdown and shutting down the economy as policymakers are deadlocked over the national budget for the next fiscal year.
While leading stock market strategists are not yet terribly concerned about such perspectives, and entertain hopes that investors have a high probability of "getting away with it" with strong performance, in reality the facts tell a different story.
S&P500 SP:SPX is suffering losses, and has already lost about half of its annual growth since the beginning of 2023, and the Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX reduced 2023 growth approximately by 30 percent.
To avoid a shutdown, Congress needs to pass all 12 spending bills for the next fiscal year by Sept. 30, something it has historically done rather poorly.
This could create problems for the market, which could immediately, that is, on the same day, be seriously affected by a US Government shutdown, considering SPX seasonality where September is one of the worst calendar month for investments into S&P500.
S&P500 Seasonality Chart
Meanwhile historical back test analysis says, in the past 20 government shutdowns, the S&P 500 stayed relatively flat, with the benchmark index losing an average 0.4% the week before a shutdown and gaining .1% by the end of a shutdown, according to a Reuters analysis of CFRA Research data.
And in some cases, stocks actually ended the shutdown period higher, with the market gaining a net 10% following the 2018-19 shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro.
Shutdowns lasting five days or more have also been known to see a quick market rebound, according to a 2021 Dow Jones analysis. On average, the S&P 500 had already moved into positive territory within one month of the shutdown. Shutdowns themselves are also relatively short. The last government shutdown, which was the longest-ever, lasted for 35 days.
Anyway everything could happened. To stay away, or look beyond the market's twists and turns in the weeks before, during, and immediately following a potential shutdown - this is could be very, very individual investment decision.
Technical pictures illustrates that weekly SMA(52) - 12 months simple moving average near 4150/4200 pp in SP:SPX or Dec'23 Futures CME_MINI:ESZ2023 (depends what are you looking for) could be quite strong support in any cases.
APPLE: In danger of repeating the Bear Cycle fractal.AAPL could be on the verge of completing November's insane rally that restored bullishness on the 1W chart and keeps the 1D technical outlook in green (RSI = 64.212, MACD = 3.520, ADX = 54.247) as it is failing so far to cross over the LH trendline of the Bearish Megaphone pattern. A structure that up until now is identical to the Megaphone that led to the 2022 Bear Cycle.
In fact the correction started on the current leg we are at that got emphatically rejected on the LH line. After the 1D MA50 failed to support, the selloff (first of that Bear Cycle) extended as low as the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Currently that is at 150.00.
Conversely, on January-February 2023 rally, it was the 1D MA50 that held and provided Support, which in turn had the uptrend continue and extend considerably higher to July's All Time High. Consequently, if the 1D MA50 holds, expect a similar March-July 2023 type continuation of the uptrend, especially if the Fed decides to finally step in and start cutting the Interest Rate.
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Decoding Apple's AI Strategy: A Hidden Gem in Generative AIDecoding Apple's AI Strategy: A Hidden Gem in Generative AI
In the AI landscape, Apple's ambitions often take a backseat, but underestimating its potential could be a mistake. This article explores why Apple might emerge as a significant player in the evolving AI space.
Apple GPT: A Strategic Response to Generative AI Dominance
While ChatGPT steals the spotlight, Apple is gearing up with Apple GPT, positioning itself as a formidable contender in generative AI.
Billion-Dollar Commitment: Apple's Strong Bet on AI Development
Investing up to $1 billion annually, Apple shows a strong commitment to narrowing the gap in generative AI, leveraging its financial strength.
Financial Fortitude: Apple's Impressive Cash Flow Fuels AI Investments
With $101 billion in free cash flow, Apple's reported annual spend of $1 billion positions it for significant AI integration.
Learning and Adapting: Apple's Advantageous Strategic Entry
Learning from competitors, Apple focuses on safety and data privacy, delivering a superior product with strategic insight.
Global Reach: Apple's Vast User Base as a Strategic Asset
Despite a delayed entry, Apple's network of over 2 billion active devices globally is a substantial asset for polished AI offerings.
Underrated AI Buy: Apple's Measured Approach and Promising Future
As an underrated buy, Apple's AI-enhanced devices present exciting prospects for consumer enthusiasm and increased demand.
Conclusion: "Strategic Patience: Apple's Long-Term Vision in AI Integration"
While not leading the AI race, Apple's strategic timeline suggests long-term success in AI integration, making it a worthwhile investment for patient investors in the evolving tech landscape.
Our preference
Above 182.50 look for further upside with 200 & 210 as targets .
Apple starting to look toppish....time for a pull back?Just got a "Sell Alert" from my customer SSG Indicator on Apple. Last 2 times this happened we saw the price quickly pull back into the direction of the 100 days EMA.
Looking actually to trade this by short-selling Calls with with a strike of 200 that expire in 1 month. However, due to Thanksgiving I expect that the volatility is not going to be very high on a friday, thus I will see later if I can get a decent premium for the risk.
BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!Bitcooooooins... UP!
In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out...
2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse.
Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania.
Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item.
I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item.
The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading).
The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason)
Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness...
However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ.
So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome.
This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed.
We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality.
SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really...
So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare??
I told you that the answer is not straight-forward.
And some short technical analysis:
This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin.
There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD )
It shows us yet another perspective:
If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in?
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.
AAPL Apple Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold the Double Top on AAPL:
or reentered here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AAPL Apple prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 172.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $5.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
S&P Pull BackNew update.
It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on:
RSI overbought on 1W
MACD Crossed on 1W
Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN.
Fuel prices are back near record highs
Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow
Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index
Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI
Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s)
With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real.
Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09).
Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing.
#SPX CBOE:SPX
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AAPL forming bullish falling wedge, break will lead price higherAPPLE
price is forming a bullish falling wedge pattern, if price make a bullish break of the wedge and continues to hold above the structure, I expect the price to move higher towards the next resistance..
Trade Wisely
*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
APPLE BUYBACKSThe previous moves on AAPL is there buybacks only. but We might see 182.34$ to break or test this buyside liquidity, Im expecting downside movement after this move atleast 165.67$ previous low to 157$ for demand grab, only if they still want to buy that zone.
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