200ma
BTC/USD - Interesting times ahead with an Ascending ChannelBTC/USD 1 day chart quick update.
Here is a closer look at this 1 day chart.
BTC is in an Ascending Channel Pattern.
BTC is still in a Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is still in a Descending Channel.
BTC is still in a massive Ichimoku Y Wave Pattern.
At the moment of typing this, BTC is fighting to stay back above its 200MA. If BTC CLOSES this or tomorrows daily candle ABOVE the 200MA and stays above it, and we see a successful re-test of the 200MA as strong support, then we could see BTC attempt to break out of its Falling Wedge Pattern upper trend-line.
Note that BTC has not closed above its 200MA since Monday 27th December 2021.
Note that BTC is also back in the Bullish Zone of its Ichimoku Cloud.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands, we can see the Bollinger Bands Upper and Lower Bands are expanding away from each other indicating increased volatility for the upside because the Middle Band is also pointing upwards. The Price is also walking up the outside of its Upper Band.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is in the Overbought Zone on this 1 day timeframe. The RSI is still above its 9 Period EMA. With the RSI in the Overbought Zone doesn’t mean it will drop as the RSI line can range sideways for a prolonged period of time.
Interesting times ahead if BTC manages to CLOSE this daily candle ABOVE its 200MA and then its Falling Wedge Pattern’s upper trend-line. A successful re-test of these 2 levels as strong support will be further confirmation that the bottom is in and a new uptrend has started. Note that after such a huge rise, maybe not yet, but we should expect at some point a correction downwards on this1 day timeframe. Who knows, if this continues, we may eventually see a Golden Cross on this 1 day timeframe when the 50MA crosses back above the 200MA.
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
Correction on chart as i had the wrong trend-line signed above for the Ichimoku Y Wave lower trend-line. Below is the correction. Apologies.
Link breaking above last potential top trendline of triangleIt’s still unclear whether or not link’s macro pattern is more valid as a falling wedge or a symmetrical triangle, however it seems now that we are finally closing daily candles above the last potential top trendline for that pattern. That trendline is most valid on the weekly chart so we still need to close the current weekly candle above the white trendline..after that we should see the follow up weekly candle confirm the white trendline as support on a retest ….if the follow up weekly candle closes above the white trendline odds are very good at that point the breakout will be validated…it may wait until the 3rd weekly candle to start the bullish impulse…or it could come as early as the current weekly candle…will have to see how the next few weekly candles play out. I chose to show this chart on the daily time frame instead of the weekly to illustrate how price action is also now back above both the 1 day 50 and 200 moving averages. If it can hold the daily 200ma as support during the next few weekly closes then the breakout will be confirmed. *not financial advice*
DXY |US10Y |T-NOTE BOND |DECRYPTERS HI people welcome to Decrypters
So We have 3 charts DXY , US10Y & T-NOTE BOND
THE LINK BETWEEN 3 CHARTS IS VERY BASIC
Lets Discuss BONDS first
The Bonds are About to Decrease in value Now bonds consist of 3 things
1-Face value (Principal Investment)
2-Maturity ( Pay back time, lets say 5 yrs )
3-Copoun rate ( Interest on Face value, lets say 7 % )
The interest on coupon will be 7% per year for 5 years At where bond will be Mature.
Now there is a Basic rule of Supply & Demand of Economics if a Bond prices fall the yield will Rise , Which Also means USD will be strengthen
Why This Happens ? Simple , Because Govs is willing to pay High for less Bond value , Meaning An investor can get higher yields By paying less bond prices
This Also may "INDICATES" The direction of economy and investors confidence which Is key for interest Rates
ICP crosses above the 200MA for the first time everInterestingly enough ICP has just crossed above the 200d MA for the first time in history. Could be the beginning of a breakout towards the $14 area. Be careful of a rejection here though, as it could get bloody very quickly. Either way, definitely worth keeping an eye on.
XRP | Unlocking the Secret Bonus LevelWelcome XRP friends! Wondering where we're going? Here are some things to consider :
As we come out of our US Thanksgiving Day food comas, we're looking at some decent gains on the most recent run BUT, you're asking if this is it? Honestly, I think it still has legs for the 0.45 area where we find resistance at the 200 EMA
Look at the fork and see if it makes sense to go there, I think the Fibonacci's all suggest it's possible.
Remember, XRP ALWAYS pumps before mad dumps and there's still a ton of overhead selling pressure if you look at the VPFR, Look at all the volume that went into the 0.50+ range before the most recent selloff.
Check out recent statements by Ripple CTO regarding ETH looking more and more centralized as a result of much of the network relying on AWS servers. What a comedy show and Vitalik looks more tarded with each passing day.
Bitty is also having plenty of negative light being cast, I can't see us NOT having more down.
Anyway, see you at the bottom . . eventually
Weekly chart on Public Storage reaches key fulcrum pointAh yes, the classic bullish falling wedge overlapping a bearish head and shoulder pattern; tale as old as time. We can see price action here on the weekly chart is getting very near the apex of the falling wedge….however it has also closed several candles below the neckline of the h&s pattern. Still not certain which of the 2 patterns will win out but it does appear the decision is very likely to be made within the next 3-10 candles. For the falling wedge to win and a break upward it is imperative priceaction holds support on the blue 200 weekly moving average. If this is flipped to solidified resistance then probability will favor the head and shoulders breakdown. *not financial advice*
BTC/USD - is BTC still in a downtrend?Let’s have a look at the BTC/USD 1 week chart and see what this chart and indicators are telling us.
BTC is still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is also still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern.
Note that the 50MA is still traveling DOWNWARDS towards the 200MA so we still might see a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe.
At the moment of typing this, BTC has crossed back under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 week timeframe. A successful close below the LSMA and successful re-test as resistance will indicate that the direction of travel will most likely continue downwards.
BTC is still way under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the Descending Pitchfork Pattern, we can see the Support and Resistance levels that BTC has been hitting on this indicator.
Here is a closer look at this 1 week chart:
BTC is still in the Bearish Zone of all 3 of its major Ichimoku Clouds.
Looking at BTC’s most important Ichimoku Cloud:
The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that mid-point the short-term momentum is downwards at the moment.
The Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the mid-term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that momentum, at the moment is starting to slope downwards.
Using the Negative V Calculation from the 1 Month Chart, and using the Ichimoku Timespan Numbers of 65-Bars and 76-Bars starting from the ATH at $68,789.63 back in Nov 2021, we have 2 potential timeframes for the price target $9,916.
V Calculation Negative (from 1 month chart)
V = B - (C-B) = D
C $25,160 - B $17,538 = $7,622
B $17,538 - (C-B) $7,1622 = $9,916
D1 = $9,916 The week of 6th Feb 2023
D2 = $9,916 The week 24th April 2023
Note that this is NOT a bottom for BTC but is a PRICE TARGET using the Ichimoku V Calculation (Negative).
Looking at the Up/Down Volume, we can see that the Volume Traded since around June 2021 has been nothing when compared to what has been previously traded in the past.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is pointing downwards and still has plenty of room to move downwards before becoming Oversold on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the RSI is getting very close to crossing under is 9 Period EMA.
From my opinion, before anyone can start talking or preaching about bottoms, reversals and bull-runs, we need to talk about fundamentals and what is happening to the world economy. We also now know that the Crypto world isn’t yet a hedge against inflation and we also need to accept the fact that the world is already in a recession and possibly heading into a depression in 2023.
From my opinion BTC is still in a mid to longterm downtrend. That is NOT going to change unless BTC crosses back ABOVE and more importantly CLOSES ABOVE its 200MA on the 1 Day Chart for Mid-Term and 1 Week Chart for Long-Term. If/when this happens, be on the lookout for any successful re-test as support on these timeframes.
Once this world wide recession fully bottoms out be it in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and when the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then true opportunities WILL ARISE for those who are ready.
Again this is all my opinion so I hope this post is helpful.
Silver appears to be triggering an inverse head & shouldersOne of the bigger green candlesticks we’ve seen on the daily chart for silver in awhile…would not be surprised if this breakout takes us to the $22 measured move target. The 1day 200 ma(in blue) will be waiting in that zone to likely provide resistance. *Not financial advice*
SPX500 might be heading shortSPX500 is facing strong resistance,
1 - touching a trend line that started on January 22 and touched again on March 22 and August 22.
2- A touch of the 200-day moving average.
3- Touch the ascending channel's top trend line.
4- Entered and exited a supply zone.
On the 4 hour time frame, I see a head and shoulder pattern with a divergence on the MACD
In order for the bears to take control, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at 3903.4 needs to be broken.
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Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments, and kindly support the idea with a like. Your support is greatly appreciated!
We're at the 200 day. Now What?Good morning. Last week we finished the week in the green even with Powell speaking on Wednesday. And now, we are hanging out at the 200 day. So.... where do we go from here? The charts are telling me to be bullish, but we should remain cautious at this level. The overall big picture makes you sit back and think. We visited the trend line from this years high back in late March and mid August. Both times, we headed lower shortly after. Is this time different? Since October we've had bullish price action and everything is saying to be bullish. But.....the overall long term pattern should not go unrecognized. We're still in a Bear Market.
I wouldn't be surprised if we grind a little bit higher this week but overall, just base here until next week. CPI is due out on the 13th and that's when we could see some action. I have my eyes set on 3600 by the end of the year. Let's see what happens. Either way, be patient, stay disciplined, control your emotions and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
200 DMA Coming Up: Rejection?Chart says all. 200 DMA been the pushback all year. Probly gonna dump again to give us a right inverted H&S.
The next rally will likely breakout above the 200 and really rocket. Be ready. Short-term short; longer-term long.
NB: 0.618 Fibo was 4007 from the 16 Aug peak (not shown). trading slightly above it here, pushback Weds PM went to Fibo.
Probly a good price to set up shorts imo, SPX 4k, SPY 400. Puts are cheap again, always a good sign for bears. FOMC 14 Dec!
Clean setup, Good returnsExtremely clean setup, Breaking the rectangular pattern. Atul Auto went highly bullish , 55% up after braking the consolidation range.
This one I hold in my portfolio. Only regret I have is why didnt I add more.
Gap is perfect, Weekly resistance level broke with good volume , Breakout came with good volume . Sustaining the breakout with volume , Broke 200 DMA weekly with a gap. What more do you need for entry in this? Accumulation should start for targets of 335, 375, 410 levels.
BTC/USD - Will we see a Death Cross on the Bitcoin 1 week chart?Looking at the BTC/USD 1 week chart, we can see that the 50MA (Yellow Line) is now getting really close to the 200MA (Red Line). A crossover would signal a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the entire history and available data on this BTC/USD 1 week chart, we can see that the 50MA has never crossed under the 200MA on this 1w timeframe. Note that the 50MA did come very close to crossing under the 200MA around the week of the 30th Nov 2015 but in the end, it didn’t happen.
Other notes:
BTC is still in a Massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern.
BTC is also still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is still under all 3 of its major unique Ichimoku Kumo (Cloud) patterns.
BTC is still under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow, we can see that we are still in the Distribution Zone traveling slightly upwards but would say more like 'sideways within a range' on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the CMF (Green Line) is still under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) (Blue Line) which is a sign of continued weakness on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) but has starting to slope downwards. Note that both the MACD Line and Signal Line are still deep in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line. Note that the last green histogram had also decreased in size and this weekly one looks like it will also close smaller than the last indicating upwards momentum is weakening on this 1w timeframe.
Interesting times and potential opportunities ahead once this World Recession bottoms.
I hope this quick chart is helpful.
VET/USD - 1w chart Update and my opinionLet’s have another quick look at the VET/USD 1w chart.
Here is a closer look at this 1w chart.
VeChain is still in its Descending Wedge Pattern on this 1w chart. Note that VET failed to close a weekly candle above its upper descending trend line of its Descending Wedge Pattern at around $0.0286. $0.0286 was also the previous high from Mon 23rd Jul 2018.
VeChain is still below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1w chart.
VET is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1w chart. Note that the Lower Band has started to curve downwards indicating volatility for the downside on this 1w chart.
Note that the 50MA (Orange Line) is getting really close to the 200MA (Red Line). If the 50MA crosses under the 200MA on this 1w chart that will create a death cross on this 1 week timeframe.
VET is now fighting to stay above its support area located at $0.01978 and $0.0181. If VET closes a weekly candle below $0.0181 then we should drop to around $0.0120.
VET is below its 1 ($0.01845) Trend Based Fib Extension Level. Failure to close a weekly candle above this level will lead to further drops.
Looking at the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) we can see the area i which the most Volume was traded on VET/USD.
Note that VET is close to dropping under its 78.60% Fib Retracement Level at $0.01811.
I have added a Modified Schiff Pitchfork pattern and you can clearly see that VET has a long way togo before crossing back above its Median Line.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is still weak with the ADX (Orange Line) at 16.34 and still under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line). Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 16.39. Negative Momentum has Increased with the -DI (Red Line) rising to 24.32.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that there is still plenty of room for VET to drop before becoming Oversold on this 1w chart. Note that the RSI (Purple Line) is still under its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a sign of downwards strength on this 1w timeframe.
So what does all this tell me:
This is all just my opinion but this tells me that there is plenty of room for VET to drop further on this 1w timeframe especially if it closes a weekly candle below its 78.60% Fib Retracement level.
Once this world wide recession fully bottoms be it in a 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then opportunities will arise for those who are ready. My crypto of choice is obviously VET and a few others that have use cases but this goes for all Crypto’s so soon your crypto of choice will be available at an even lower bargain price. Especially if/when BTC drops to the $12k-$9k range. Please see the chart below.
I hope this is helpful with your trading or hodl-ing.
DONT FOMO INTO LONGS JUST YETWe are all looking at the same chart and thinking the same thing. SPY COULD have a serious bounce on the 200ma with a POSSIBLE bullish divergence on MACD and RSI. Many have already begun to FOMO into a possible year end rally as we have been rallying hard the past few days. This year is also a midterm election year (midterm election years usually have a rally beginning election time into the middle of the following year). However, this years year end rally is still not confirmed and going bullish so early would be disrespectful to the insane bear market we are having. Expect a retest of the 200ma in the coming weeks with the price coming back down to ATLEAST between 265 to 260, if not lower. If it holds, there is a definite possibility we could be testing 400 at the end of the year to beginning of 2023. However, for this upcoming month I am expecting us to be range bound. There are so many big earnings with banks reporting in the third week and big tech reporting in the last week of the month. Expect for us to have a better direction beginning of November.
Also, do not be surprised if we do not bounce at the 200ma. This bear market is no joke. If earnings are bad and we break down, be ready for a possible 320. Also note Credit Sussie CEO will deliver their turnaround strategy on OCT 27, aligning perfectly with with the end of big tech and bank earnings. How the market reacts to their strategy will also weigh into the direction the market will take to close the year.
Till the breakout in either direction is confirmed, be smart and play the range that will form.
Gaussian channel predicting the cycle bottom?In the previous cycles the exact bottom was one candle before the 200 ma (orange line) crossed up on the median line in the gaussian channel on the 3 day chart. The yellow vertical lines are placed at one candle before the crossing. If we don't reach a new low this cycle, the gaussian channel has predicted the exact cycle bottom a third time.
XRP continuing to hit bullish breakout targets!We can see the price action has hit the measured move breakout target of the blue symmetrical triangle…it is also now pumping above the 1 day 200ma on its way to hit the next target of the green channel it has also broken out of…once we hit that target we may see a retrace or slight correction or sideways consolidation before it continues upward because as you can see there is on this chart an even bigger triangle pattern with yellow trendlines that we have also broken above…I will save the target of that larger pattern for another idea. XRP continues to look very bullish. *not financial advice*