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10yryields

Equities at a turning point, and bonds peakingThis year we've seen yields trade higher and equities lower, and breakdown of the uncorrelated relationship driven by inflation and rate rise expectations. However, 9th May may have marked the turning point. Yields are moving in step with equities, a return to the 'normal' relationship (and diversification). So Equities and bonds are sniffing out the probability that growth is going to keep slowing pushing the US into a recession and the Fed in turn may change course. Is the bottom in? Equities have priced in 2.5-3% rates, further downside would be a severe growth slowdown. But in bonds it looks like we're seeing a peak in yields.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MDavi
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - These Charts Indicate Reversals Ahead.In this video I take you through what is happening on these charts according to AriasWave: -10 Year Bond Yields- We are seeing rates continue to rise. I do not believe this will end anytime soon. -Dow Jones- The latest analysis for the Dow Jones indicates that this long term bull market has come to an end and a severe correction will need to occur. -Eurusd- The pattern in the Euro also indicates trouble ahead as a long term correction has been confirmed as complete in the last few weeks. -Bitcoin- As like with the Dow Jones, the latest analysis for the Bitcoin indicates that this bull market has come to an end and a severe correction will need to occur also. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
10yr with MOVE What does this show? The Move Index, indicates the volts within the bond market, yield movement is an important factor that everyone should keep in mind, even if you don't trade the asset. Now, this is more of an advance level: Fixed-Income division: As we all know, volts has been up, it's been like 🥢 is what I call this market when it comes to US indices, I use it as hedge just like I use the VIX with ES. We all know we are in a bear market it's very different to what we experience in the pandemic there are major shifts have occurred and will be occurring for the months and years ahead. What does this mean for Bond market? Well, due to inflation pressures globally, dxy heads higher, but most markets I trade is US bonds we have inverted when it comes to yields 2/10yr to negative state... What does this mean? Simply we may have stagflation or recession heading in next 18-24 months. Now sure, that could head earlier into that, inflation figures are at record highs, GDP figures getting questionable and let me tell you something it's hurting us as consumers no matter what country you are in, I'm sure in UK residences you'd had a your energy bills - lovely weren't they (Sarcasm). Take a look at history of cycles, and actually last time china came into help but I don't think they will this time but this cycle is obviously different but a change is yet to come further. This is explained in-depth in the week ahead videos, but most importantly - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! It's so important to test various tools out in trading and see what suits you personally best. There is no one set way of trading, we all got various different plans. I have been using the MOVE index with 2/10/30yrs and it's been working out great, just little tip for you guys on how many great metrics there are out there that can help make you make investment decisions. Those groups I am part of know what trades I am part of . Next great move will be coming as we have had Feds minutes, Hawkish but we also have had plenty of Fed speakers and now we could rally even more 50 basis hikes and most of it is priced in as market is forward looking...Now don't forget higher dollar, the yen another currency pair that was great to be looking out on, housing market🎈, credit spreads, think about EM market! Things are going to get even more interesting! Stay tuned Hope this in-depth analysis helps you. Best wishes, Trade Journal
TVC:US10Y
by Trade_Journal
$US10Y Breaking Out OF 40 Year TrendHistorically, in the absence of QE (Quantitative Easing), the US10Y (US 10 Year Treasury Bon) exceeds inflation. This means that bond yields must rise to exceed inflation for non-Federal Reserve buyers to enter the market place. Non-Government buyers will not buy a bond below inflation as their real returns would be negative. A SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS/CONSIDERATIONS: How The Fed May Reduce The Balance Sheet: - If they flood the market, we could see a squeeze on the bond market as the FED represented 2/3 of the bond market prior to ending their aggressive purchasing of bonds last week. How The New "Standing Repo Facility (S.R.F)" Will Effect The Bond Market: - Unclear, as it is untested in this Quantitative Tightening (QT) climate. - The premise is that the S.R.F is a tool that FED now has to avoid what happened in 2019. The goal is to help prevent a spike in bond yields. Explanation from Federal reserve website: www.federalreserve.gov "When the Federal Reserve conducts an overnight repo, it buys a security from an eligible counterparty and simultaneously agrees to sell the security back the next day. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price of the securities implies a rate of interest earned by the Federal Reserve on the transaction. The FOMC sets the S.R.F minimum bid rate, which is the minimum interest rate the Federal Reserve is willing to receive in an S.R.F operation; if the amount of bids exceeds the operation limit, the actual interest rate that a counterparty pays is determined through an auction process. The securities accepted in S.R.F operations include Treasury securities, agency debt securities, and agency mortgage backed securities."
TVC:US10YLong
by VakninAnalytics
3
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - XLMUSD\BTC\DOW\EURUSD\GOLD\10YR-YIELDSNot much has changed since the last market update. The liquidity that has been driving these bubble markets for decades has hit a brick wall with the rise of the 10YR-Bond Yields as the primary guage. The Fed has no choice but to extinguish this raging inflation by raising rates. What came first: the chicken or the egg? Some say that this is politically motivated but I believe this all just human psychology at play. Nothing lasts forever and there is no such thing as a free lunch and I believe we are about to find out what the real effects of MMT are as we head into the end of this cycle. An interesting side note is that the Tulip Mania and South Sea bubbles of the 1600s and 1700s both happened during a time when the 10YR Bond Yields were falling to historical all-time lows. We once again find ourselves in a very similar situation, so how modern is this monetary theory really? Especially when humans keep forgetting the lessons of the past. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
1
TNX - Daily / The Break of SymmetrySince July we began suggesting the ROC large break in early 2021 was a precursor to a decades-long reversal in the Bond Market. A Historic event seemingly lost on Convention. The longer-term downtrend can easily be observed in both Weekly and Monthly Charts - within those 2 TF's you will see the Long Term Channels UTL. ______________________________________________________________________ I pay a great deal of attention to Symmetry and Time, as it is as important as Price. ______________________________________________________________________ We can see in the chart above, 10 Year Yields decisively broke out as our pivot for higher was 1.961. Initially, it was front-run by 1 Pip during the Pre-Open - for bonds the action begins at 8 AM EST. The rest is history. Extensions will trade into March IMHO. Buyers since the FAKE 153 TOSS have been beaten down. Many are still insisting on remaining in the Bid, Buy the Dippers @ 153 / 151 / 149 / 147 / 143 / 142 / 139 / 136 continue to walk themselves into continuing losses. The Waffle House opened for Drive-Thru and the parking lot pileup ensued. ________________________________________________________________________ Forward CASH is not only being discounted for 007s, but for Corporate Jumbos aka Mega Caps. A clear sign of Depression 10X from August 2020 - a leading indicator by 18 months historically. Right on TIME - March 2022. __________________________________________________________________________ You cannot fix stupid you can, however - you can take it's $. Rates will continue to persist to the Larger time frames @ 3.5%. This is the point of truncation late this year when 5/5 concludes for the Equity Complex at New ATHs. Even the TLT baggies will gain small relief as all JUNK is hoisted higher in one final Tulip Phase. A multi-year Bear Market will ensue, collaterals will be "Reset" and Bonds, as we long warned become perpetual. Fluidity / Mobility matter most. Unfortunately, the vast majority will remain snared.
T
by HK_L61
10-Year Treasury Yield All Set for Summer 2019 Highs?Following another strong US CPI report, the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 2%, further pushing above peaks from late 2019 (1.9073 - 1.9718). That has exposed peaks from summer 2019 as key resistance (2.1779 - 2.1431). A bullish Golden Cross remains in play between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence shows fading upside momentum. A turn lower may see the SMAs act as support, maintaining the dominant upside focus. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
A comparison between IXIC and US10Y.Hello traders and investors! Let’s do a quick study on the IXIC. The index is having a hard time now that we hit our resistance and filled the gap at 14,387, and this is expected. This could trigger a pullback all the way down to the previous gap at 14,226, and the 21 ema area. Together, these supports form a dual-support level for the short-term. If we lose this dual-support level, the index could drop more, but so far, we have no bearish sign confirming this. It is important to watch the 10-year yields, as this might be an important catalyst for the next movements: To me, it seems it is doing a Double Bottom to fill the previous gap (yellow area), and this confirms the idea of a pullback in the short-term. However, when we look the daily/weekly charts, we see something interesting: The 10-yr yield is doing a Hanging Man candlestick pattern in the daily chart, just after it hit the resistance at the black line, seen in the weekly chart as a major resistance in 2019. If the yield is about to correct for the next few days, now is the best time in many years. This reading don’t affect the short-term reading, however, if the 10-yr yield triggers this Hanging Man, I’ll be convinced of a sharper pullback for the mid-term. The IXIC still could fill the previous gap, and trigger the pivot point at 14,504 in sequence, reversing the trend in the mid-term, potentially filling the gap at 14,855. To sum up, even considering a possible pullback in the short-term, the bullish thesis in the mid-term is still valid – until proven otherwise. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies on stocks and indices! Have a good day.
TVC:IXIC
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - 10-YR-YIELDS\DOW\BTC\USOIL\GOLD\EURUSDIn this video I go through all the major charts and they are all pointing to some volatile times ahead. I understand that not everyone will agree with this analysis and thats fine. Create your own. All the analysis in this video is based on the AriasWave methodology. AriasWave has a community of likemidned people that enjoy learning the waves in an objective manner. I encourage you to learn the waves so that you can come to your own conclusions. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
by AriasWave
2
10 Year Bonds Short ? / EU Long !As you can hopefully see, there is a correlation between Euro Bunds and US Treasuries. Because the yields on bonds have risen sharply in the last few days, the question now arises as to how long this will last? Yields had their last strong increase due to excellent economic data of the 4th calendar week. It is therefore very possible that if deteriorated to very negative fundamental data are published in the near future, we will see an increase in Euro Bund yields and, on the other hand, weaker US bonds.
TVC:EUBUND
by Heinisch_2108
Traders' guide: 10 yr Yield + markets positively linkedFirst - if you think markets always move opposite to yields, please be open to learning something new. Covariance, in statistics, is the relationship between two random variables. This chart indicates periods of negative (blue) and positive (yellow) covariance between the 10 year yield and SPY. If you think about it, this makes sense because there are times when rising rates give investors more confidence in the economy. Traders can benefit from knowing the general relationship. > Yields change in response to central bank activity - I cannot explain why the covariance flips > Other factors influence markets but yield is reliable for intraday moves > 1.77 has been key support for the yield recently, and hence for markets > Above 1.83, markets get spooked and covariance becomes negative (you can see this in yellow boxes also) > Below 1.74,1.73 should increase selling momentum How am I using this information to plan trades? > I believe yields will drop further and take markets lower, so I am looking for swing put trades > This strong upward rally has brought indices and stocks to moving average and price resistance areas, which technically also indicate swing puts > I have successfully day traded DIA and QQQ calls and puts using yield changes a guide > I was too early in buying swing puts on 31 Jan, but since they expire 18Feb I can hold the loss for now > As I finish writing this, yield moved up from 1.748 to 1.771 and markets have also been moving up - I see this as a good time to buy swing puts
TVC:TNX
by OptionsRising
34
US10YEARS -W1/D1 - PULLBACK HOLD !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a pullback towards the former downtrend line which hold and which should now be seen as the new support level. The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 1.7930 % has been filled for a second time in a row; there is only a "little" interrogation mark about RSI price action which is not showing a convergence but rather a "minor" bearish divergence which may trigger further consolidation over the coming session (s). In this weekly time frames, I would suggest to look at 2 important support levels which are the following : S1 : 1.69 % S2 : 1.55-1.50 % On the upside, the door is open for the 61.8% Fib ret @ 2.1370 % DAILY (D1) Last Friday's price action showed a long white candle (bullish engulfing) which has been triggered by the support offered by the Tenkan-Sen. Therefore, the TS @ 1.71 % should be seen, on a daily basis closing, as the first significant support level , ahead of the ongoing uptrend support line, currently @ 1.67% and which is also the junction with the former downtrend line resistance. A daily closing below 1.65% should also be seen as the first warning signal of a reversal in this daily time frame. Last but not least, a RSI bearish divergence took place in this time frame and price action over the upcoming daily session (s) will validate or invalidate this observation. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10YLong
by Ironman8848
3
FIngerprints of the Past Point to an Uncertain FutureWhat can the past teach us about the present, furture? What do Energy, Interest Rates, and Volatility have in common? Perhaps more than meets the eye. One could surmise this has been ongoing since 2000, one could argue since the 80's. Cycles repeat, can gets kicked.....until we run out of kicks, then the roosters come home to roost, (and they do occasionally need to come home. My eyes are on Q2. Tightrope between now and then. Black swans (Russia/Ukraine, Inflation, Tightening and Interest Rate provide the catalyst. Not financial Advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by AlphaRainmaker
1
TNX - Clear indication of a Pullback10 Year Yeidls should begin to pull back, this will provide a welcome wind for TECH into EPS Season. Bond VX is retreating as well. RSI/STO Summation indicates an overbought condition. ____________________________________________________ Seemingly - this implies our thesis for the Recac has come into the Trade and was supported by the Short Squeeze and Gamma Call Squeeze after the Put Close. Jumbos want to make $, it is axiomatic the ranges will expand and Profits can be made on ALL sides of the Ranges. It is that simple.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
2