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10yryields

ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - It's Never All About One Chart.In this video I give you a rough outline as to what I believe is going on in the economy in general. There is obviously not enough time to go into all of the small details for every chart. It's more about understanding that the confluence on each chart leads to the overall view. That view is that we are heading into a very important time for the long term pattern for each chart. In summary it appears as though we have only just entered a bear market that will last years. My observation is that the more a corrective pattern expands the more it needs to correct. Corrections can be very deep and in some cases up to 100% over long periods of time. There is no set rule for how deep corrections retrace or for how long. The probability that you will give back any profits you make without proper knowledge of the waves is extremely high. Understanding how the waves operate means understanding that each wave component has very specific and unmistakable characteristics. An extremely strong US Dollar means that everything else will fall in value relative to it. What I mean by extremely strong it is that the US Dollar is in an impulsive 5-Wave move to the upside. Whether that be a Wave (C), 1, 3 or 5. If you have no idea which one then you must use the rules and process of elimination. I am not talking about the corrective portion of it like we have seen in the years between 1985 and 2021. But instead what we are seeing right now. If you do not know how to go through the process of elimination it is simply because you do not understand wave components or what to eliminate during that process. There are 4 stages of competence, I encourage you to rate yourself according to this model in order to gauge your understanding of the waves. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
4
US02Y/US10Y bonds signals end to market rally. Bear FlattenerUS02Y up ~6% US10Y up ~0.12% Definition of a Bear Flattener = market go down. Is it a perfect indicator? Of course not. But the tendency is that bear flatteners mean money is coming out of the market and going into short term bonds where it can come out of the quickest if market turns around. So the short term bonds act as a kind of pump/dump for the market. We are getting bear flattener headwinds ahead of CPI print next week. Next week maybe market flattens out, momentum dies, slow stochastic falls below 80, and price sets up to go below prior "higher lows". Keep on alert.
TVC:US02YShort
by DarthTrader1357
1
Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
TVC:US10YShort
by jackwheeler
10-Year Treasury Yield Faces Head & Shoulders, Lookout Below?The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes. Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70. This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average is holding up as support. It could still maintain the dominant uptrend. Otherwise, confirming a breakout under the neckline and the moving average may open the door to a broader reversal. Key levels to watch to the downside include the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements at 2.36 and 2.05 respectively. Beyond the latter sits the March low at 1.66. Overturning the Head & Shoulders entails a push above the right shoulder, which is just below 3.15. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
3
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - NEW WAVE COUNT EXPLAINED...In this video I continue on from my XLM PRICE ACTION UPDATE which I will link below. It all started a few weeks back when the price action was invalidated on the XLMUSD analysis. Instead of just jumping the gun, I took my time in analyzing and discovering the flaws in my previous analysis. Just because the main stream media is bearish didn't mean that I was going to follow along. Instead I took it upon myself to try and understand what is happening in order to find any clues that might lead me on that path. So now I present a more bearish view in a timely manner, pointing out the reasons why I believe we will go lower for a period of time. This could potentially lead us into the end of the year but at this stage it is best to just follow the waves. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
CAPITALCOM:XLMUSD
by AriasWave
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - Turns Take Time, patience required.In this video I take you through some simple cycle analysis to add credence to my wave counts. Things becomes a bit clearer when you take a step back and look at the bigger picture. What exactly do people expect will happen to the markets? Since when did the main stream media warn me that a crash is coming in time to save my capital? If I relied on the mainstream media I would already be completely broke because the move down started months and months ago. I am not buying their good Samaritan warnings. I am doing the opposite. I am not just a contrarian but I also have AriasWave to guide me through these types of corrections. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
CAPITALCOM:XLMUSDLong
by AriasWave
2
10 Year Note Yield / 10 Year NoteIt's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent. The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789. 9 States had ratified the US Constitution. In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit. Congress became far more dependent on the printing of money, which led to hyperinflation. Congress lacked the authority to levy taxes - doing so would have risked alienating an American public that had gone to war with the British over the issue of taxation without representation for the Crown. ________________________________________________________________ The first 6 Months of 2022 have been a disaster for Bonds. Unfortunately, it is simply just beginning. At present, the "Disinflation Wave" is in the trade as the Media / Wall Street ups the narrative and continues to bang the Commodity Rollover as evidence. Typically (although we do not use History as a Guide as this is the largest Bear Market in History, it is unprecedented as we have noted for months) we see an 8 to 13 Month mismatch cycle for "Dis-Inflation". Although Demand Destruction is being accelerated in Capital Stock losses, people eat, drink, drive... consume material things required for their very existence. _________________________________________________________________ The most recent 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 2year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions were a significant failure at a time when the FED reportedly reduced their balance sheet by $21B after a retracement for several weeks off the May 25th outsized and front-run dump of $51B. Meanwhile, Reverse Repurchase pools continue to swell to new all-time highs, most recently $2.34T - earning 1.55% and safely out of perceived harm's way. Depression concerns are clearly intensifying. 2 Year Bond Futures continue to Invert intra-day. M1 / M2 / M3 continue to flee to the Big Lots Pool. _________________________________________________________________ Negative GDP reinforces the Demand Destruction - Consumers will out how Inflation peaks... Central Banks claim to want Positive Real Rates. Consumers are rolling over, demand destruction is seeing far broader participation as Savings / Investment / Incomes decline at the highest ROC's in decades. This would require an outside Fed Fund Futures move, one that appears improbable for the near term. I'd like Ashley Trevort Twins - Seems improbable as well. The difference is, that the odds favor my wish. The Bond Market will retrace in select points on the Yield Curve, but ultimately the Negative real rate to Inflation will find its Afterburner. _________________________________________________________________ Entities are not going to step up, this is clear. The ticking insolvency bomb fuse was lit in early 2021... How long is that fuse? Not long. Equities remain the Capital stock to destroy, Housing / Alt Coins / Metals ... etal are not long for this environment. In order for Global Central Banks to meet their stated objectives... they'll need to become far more aggressive. Will they...
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
2
10-Year Treasury Yield Trendline Breakout Faces Next TestThe 10-year Treasury yield confirmed a breakout under a near-term rising trendline from March, opening the door to reversing the uptrend since then. Rising concerns about a recession in the United States, also amid a general slowdown in global growth expectations, are pressuring bond yields lower. Ahead, the 10-year rate is facing the May low at 2.705 where the 100-day Simple Moving Average is fast approaching. The latter could still reinstate the dominant upside focus. Otherwise, more pain may be in store. Below is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 2.3667. Resuming the uptrend entails a push back above the current 2022 high at 3.497. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
TNX-The chart you should be following very, very closely!!!I posted about TNX at the end of March and warned that we were in unchartered territory. At that time, TNX had bullishly crossed the monthly cloud which was something it had not done during my lifetime nor probably most traders lifetimes. We are just about to quarter's end (June 30th) and you can see a clear breakout on an Inverse H&S is occurring. I see nothing but tailwinds for this chart within the next 2 weeks so I don't see how we don't close the quarter above 3.056. The measured move implies a target on TNX of 5.502 with the ability to "wick" above to 6%. Debt is becoming more & more expensive by the quarter and it's all happening very, very quickly. In addition, have a look at the quarterly charts of Wheat, Rice, Soy, Corn & Oil...all of them look to be either breaking out on the quarter or they are just bullish AF. Inflation, as it relates to what is most essential in life, has not peaked...
TVC:TNXLong
by Vixtine
7
USD/JPY Losing Yield SupportThe USD/JPY rally has been driven by sharp increase in US interest rates and in particular is very sensitve to 10 year movements. What has happened since the FED rate hike is a high in yields has been put in short term and we are consolidating lower, this has not yet jumped across meaningfully to the USD/JPY which is rallying on Momentum and made fresh highs 136.99 before easing back 136.55 as we go into the Asian open on the 30th. Counter trend trading is tough so make sure stops tight and with selloffs they can be quick and then sharp bounce back with trend. This means putting take profits in is more important that normal in these sort of trades. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based o n a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
Short
by easyMarkets
Yields / Fed Funds / Rates / Inflation / 007s / TLT / ZN / ZBYou can't fix silly. You can't fix stupid. The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin. ____________________________________________________ Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out. TLT will head to Sub 52. You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would. And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why. DX back to 125? Yeah... it's how you end up in ruin. Europe first. TNX Yield times 2.81 - follow along or lose.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by HK_L61
3
TNX - Walking the Scarlet HarlotPoof, up - down - all around... 2.76 dipped in @ 2.702, good to see. With the FEDs distro of USTs and MBS well underway ahead of June 15... gobbling up Yields aren't working out so well. No. Supply Limited thanks to the Fellen over @ the Treasury... is now a catalyst for increased chasing. Jerry can offload the Junk to Banks desperate for Yields as they are seeing Loan Activity dry up like the Mohave. Going to be an interesting Liquidity Crisis unfolding again.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61