1-BTCUSD
BITCOIN $150k doesn't seem so unrealistic now, does it?Almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below), we made a bold prediction of a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) target at $150000 by early 2025, while the price was still at $60k:
This was received with a lot of skepticism at the time but with the price now almost on the $100k psychological barrier, the idea looks more and more realistic. It is time to revisit this chart and made some slight modifications based on the price action that was followed.
The price is now off the 0.786 - 1.0 Fibonacci range where it consolidated from March 2024 until October 2024. The enormous rise/ break-out is attributed of course to a large extent on the U.S. elections and the euphoria that followed. We are only 1 month outside this range and the price is already much higher.
Last month's candle is very similar to November 2020 and May 2017. In comparison, that was when the most aggressive (parabolic) rallies of those Bull Cycles started. In 2017 from May to December, it was on a 71.5° angle. On the next Cycle from November 2020 to April 2021, it was on a 68.5° angle, i.e. 3° lower. If that's a progression by any means, then we can assume that the 2024 - 2025 parabolic rally could be on a 65.5° angle (-3° from the previous Cycle). That gives a potential target of $300k as early as May 2025, assuming we could have a Double Top Cycle as in 2021.
In any case, it will be interesting to see if the current Cycle also makes a blow-off top (like the last two) outside/ above the Channel Up that started back on the December 2013 High. Unrealistic as it may seem now, the $150k Target is very plausible technically as it is just below the top of that multi-year Channel Up. If the $300k blow-off top (red Arcs) comes, then all the better, but a long-term investor may consider to start taking profits while the price is inside the Channel Up and starts being cautious once we break above it in the red Arcs.
So what do you think? Do you view $150k as technically realistic as this pattern indicates? And if so, can Bitcoin even make a blow-off top near $300k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- Very risky sell, or wait to buy at 85kLast week, Bitcoin came tantalizingly close to the significant milestone of $100,000 but fell just shy of breaching it. After this near miss, the cryptocurrency experienced a minor correction. Yesterday, Bitcoin tested the $100,000 level once again, only to retreat once more, indicating a persistent struggle to decisively break through this psychological barrier.
Like many traders, I am anticipating a more substantial correction in the near term. One potential strategy could involve selling around the $97,000 level, assuming Bitcoin retraces upward before a deeper pullback.
However, this is undeniably a high-risk trade for two reasons.
First, selling at this level goes against the prevailing bullish trend.
Second, with so many market participants eyeing a correction, there’s a risk that the anticipated move might not play out as expected.
A safer and potentially more rewarding approach could be to wait for a more pronounced correction, targeting a buy around the $85,000 level.
This strategy would align with expectations of a continuation of the broader upward trend, with Bitcoin eventually breaking past $100,000.
If the correction materializes, this level might offer a solid entry point to capitalize on the next leg of the rally.
BTCUSD Swing trade ideaThough I am not very active in posting on the platform, I decided to once again share my ideas on BTC. While I personally would love to see a retest of the prior ATH break, I don't believe it is on the table for the time being. The following is a simple swing trade setup using some already very publicly known retail concepts such as SMC.
Is a deeper Bitcoin correction coming?The price has already lost several important lows, lost its long-term ascending trend line and has taken a corrective guard. #Bitcoin may need some rest or correction.
Most likely view: Until Bitcoin consolidates above $96,000, we cannot be optimistic about the rise. For now, I have taken profit on all trades and am ready for the US market to open today to see if we will continue the decline or if the market will make another upward turn with strong and high-volume candles.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin continue to rise?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the downtrend channel to fail.
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. This path will continue until the bottom of the channel and the specified support range.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
According to a report by Fox Business, informed sources have indicated that the new U.S administration might grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority to oversee certain digital assets. The CFTC’s expanded role could include regulating cryptocurrency exchanges and cash markets tied to digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are categorized as commodities. These changes could diminish the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) influence in this sector.
Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and a staunch crypto critic, has supported granting CFTC more authority over Bitcoin, deeming it a commercial commodity. In March, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against the crypto exchange KuCoin, also classifying Ethereum as a commodity.
As of November 2024, MicroStrategy owns over 380,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $31.6 billion, accounting for nearly 2% of the total global supply. This Virginia-based software intelligence company first began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020 and has since expanded its holdings to 15 times those of its closest corporate competitor, Marathon Digital.
Tesla, which invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in February 2024, ranks fourth among public companies in Bitcoin ownership. Around the same time, Tesla also started accepting Bitcoin as payment for its vehicles.
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed leasing the country’s 170 volcanoes to Bitcoin miners, granting them access to the geothermal energy.
Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, has forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $740,000 by April 2028 based on historical trends. Morehead tied this projection to the election of Donald Trump as a pro-crypto U.S. president and a Congress supportive of digital assets.
He also highlighted that only 5% of the global financial wealth is invested in blockchain-related assets, suggesting significant growth potential for Bitcoin. In his letter, he wrote, “Even after 11 years, Bitcoin is still like a seed sprouting in the soil.” He added that the regulatory challenges faced by blockchain over the past 15 years have now transformed into golden opportunities.
This optimistic outlook aligns with Pantera Capital’s Bitcoin fund, which has delivered strong performance. Launched in 2013, the fund has achieved a 131,000% return over 11 years, excluding fees, primarily due to Bitcoin’s 1,000-fold price increase since the fund purchased it at $74 per BTC.
Morehead emphasized that “it’s not too late to buy Bitcoin.” He added, “Some investors may think that Bitcoin’s doubling this year means they missed the opportunity, but this is a flawed mindset.”
Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) sparked a debate about meme coins in the crypto space. In a tweet, he criticized meme coins, stating, “I’m not against memes, but meme coins have gotten a bit bizarre. Let’s build real applications using blockchain.”
Meanwhile, Hong Kong has proposed tax exemptions for cryptocurrency activities, aiming to compete with Singapore as a leading financial hub and attract major investors and asset managers. According to the Financial Times, the exemptions cover profits from digital assets, private credits, overseas properties, and carbon credits.
Patrick Yip from Deloitte China noted that this initiative could bolster Hong Kong’s financial industry as family offices in the city allocate up to 20% of their portfolios to digital assets.
During the trading week of November 25–29, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $138 million in capital outflows after seven consecutive weeks of inflows.
Performance of the top-traded ETFs on Friday:
• Total: $320 million
• BlackRock: $137 million
• Fidelity:
BITCOIN UPDATE: MUST READ!!!I may get a lot of criticism for this, but before you write a hate comment, please read the update carefully.
November has been a great month for BTC, with a solid 48% gain, pushing it to a new all-time high. This growth has also benefited altcoins.
Currently, BTC is facing rejection, and if it undergoes a correction, we are likely to see levels around FWB:73K –$74k by February 2025. The RSI is already in the overbought zone and is displaying a bearish divergence pattern.
The only way BTC can avoid this rejection is by breaking above its new all-time high. I plan to follow this pattern unless BTC successfully breaks above its all-time high.
That’s all for now. I hope this helps you make better decisions.
As always, conduct your own research and analysis before investing.
Thank you!
Bitcoin: the $100K is still the targetAlthough it seems that the BTC slowed down its path toward the upside, still, charts seem more like a short pause before the next final milestone is reached for this year. Previous week was a little bit bumpy for BTC, as the coin modestly reverted toward the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at $91.115. The support line at $90K has not been clearly tested. This level was also a point where dip-buying orders strongly emerged, bringing the coin back toward the level of $98,6K. Such moves show that there is still potential for BTC and its higher grounds, while short term reversals need to occur eventually.
The RSI continues to move within the highly overbought territory, and will most probably continue its path for some time, until the market exhausts completely the potential for the higher grounds. The moving average of 50 days still strongly diverges from MA200 counterpart, without any indication of a potential slowdown in the coming days.
At this point on charts, BTC is on a sort of a short cross-road. On one side there is a potential for another short reversal toward the downside, but it could be only a short one. On the opposite side, there is also a potential that the old ATH could be tested in the coming days, at the level of $99K. Whether this will be a final breakthrough toward the actual $100K level is unclear at this moment, but the crypto futures market is quite positive about such a move.
BTC LONG TP:100k 1 HR 30-11-2024Bitcoin is aiming for 100k on a 1-hour timeframe, with a focus on establishing a long position in the 96,500 to 95,000 range. It's recommended to set a stop loss at 94,000. Please note that the entry points and stop loss are merely suggestions, so feel free to adapt them to your own trading strategy. This analysis will be invalidated if the expected movement doesn't occur within the next 30 hours. Stay sharp and trade wisely! #Bitcoin #Trading
$BTC: $101K Pump Possible? Or Correction to $93K?Good morning, crypto bro's! 🌅
📊 Fear & Greed Index: 80 (Extreme Greed).
📈 Stoch RSI: Still oversold (25).
💡 Analysis:
Current Action: Bitcoin hasn't corrected to $93K yet.
Short-term Possibility: Small chance for an instant pump to $101K.
Larger Probability: Correction to $93K– GETTEX:92K remains the primary outlook.
📌 As always, stay safe, don’t let FOMO take over, and keep managing your risks.
I'm Akki, one chart at a time. Have a great day and stay SAFU!
Bitcoin's historical 868 day low to high cycleIt appears that every bull market lasts 868 days.
August 2015 to Dec 2017 - Bitcoin did a 78x growing from $194 to $19.1k
Dec 2018 to November 2021 - Bitcoin did a 20x growing from $3.1k to $69k
November 2022 to present - Bitcoin has grown from $15k to $99k with more expected.
Following this 868 day pattern the bull market is expected to end in late March 2025 roughly 110 days away.
The question is, does BlackRock change things? Does America's promise to buy 250,000 BTC a year for 5 years change things? The big money is coming.
BTC Secondary Trend. Gann trend fan 2024-2026. TriangleLogarithm. Time frame is 3 days.
Nothing new, everything is the same as previously shown in 2022 (the main trend), targets, logic and so on.
Major trend .
BTC/USD Secondary Trend Cycles and Halvin g 1 07 2022
In the present ideas, at the moment now clearly showed this triangle in the range of dynamic support/resistance of the Gann fan (that is, the development of the uptrend phase participation to distribution).
Vertical lines. The site does not display vertical dates if for a long period, Before publication the dates (time zones) are displayed on the chart, after publication they are not. These are the times of trend reversal zones.
Local trend and this reversal zone.
BTC/USD Triangle. Medium term and local work 07 06 2024
Bitcoin: Just Getting Started Again?Bitcoin has retraced to the 90K support (anticipated in my previous article) and is now attempting to retest the 100K high for the second time. Markets are mostly RANDOM, which means there are countless scenarios than can unfold from here. In this article I will focus on just TWO possibilities that I am anticipating for the coming week. The market chooses the outcome and it is our job to use available information to identify the market's intent. For me, that means using price action confirmation to improve probability and quantify my risk for whatever type of trade I am interested in pursuing. The amount of risk you are willing to accept is your responsibility from here.
The first scenario is the Captain Obvious one. Price breaks the high of the yesterday's inside bar and tests the 100K level over the coming week. While this may seem great, IF there is no major catalyst behind this, the chances of a FAILED HIGH are significant. The previous retrace serves as a sign that momentum is slowing in general. IF a failed high (double top) appears and confirms, the next retrace can be substantial to the tune of mid 80Ks. This is not a forecast, it is a potential RISK you must accept from current levels. The other thing to consider is even if 100K is cleared, what potential does it have relative to this risk? With that in mind, if I were to do anything with this scenario it would only be on small time frames, because that is the best way to avoid the large magnitude risk while participating in whatever is left of this move.
The second scenario is the retrace to the high 80's low 90K area for a failed low. This is more in line with the potential consolidation that appears to be developing (sub Wave 4 of 5?). IF Bitcoin offers this opportunity, along with the confirmation, it has a greater potential than the first scenario (inside bar). The arrows on the chart along with the lines illustrate the failed low scenario. This can be pursued on day trade as well as swing trade time frames. The confirmation at the second low is the key to entering this while keeping risk within reason.
A few things to keep in mind about this environment: the catalyst behind this momentum is the U.S. election. Market cap is at all time highs for this sector. Most of the large cap alt coins have reached major resistance levels on weekly and monthly time frames, but nowhere near all time highs. The "experts" are once again all coming out claiming "this is just the beginning". A market testing major resistance levels AFTER sharp break outs is usually NOT "the beginning". In my opinion times like this are ideal for reducing risk or taking profits. I will always suggest this at cycle highs (just like in 2021).
"Great" investing opportunities require long periods of WAITING and watching a market go lower and be completely off the mainstream radar. In this space, cycle lows can take a YEAR or TWO to play out. Alt coins are NOT long term assets, they are just a gamble. When asset bubble money flows, it often makes its way to complete nonsense which can be NFTs. Keep an eye in that area for the risk appetite overflow.
This is NOT a game of getting "rich" as every single video on Youtube is claiming. It is a game of how much RISK you are willing to take. If you have no problem with a healthy retrace giving back 20%+, then by all means do what you have to do. IF you can't handle losing the money, then you are in the wrong game. There are infinitely more people in position to get rich from this entire space BEFORE you. Markets CYCLE from low to high, etc. Just KNOW the RISK associated with the part of the cycle we are in. Hint: When 5 waves can be counted, it usually means there is a greater chance of a coming corrective move. Just ask all the geniuses who bought the highs back in 21.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.