BitcoinLong
BITCOIN BIAS IS NOW SET
Updated
Yesterday was an important day for Bitcoin when it comes to figuring out the bias for the long-term. March closed above December's lows, which means it gave us a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP).
To be clear, this doesn't mean Bitcoin will skyrocket from here. A lot can happen in the next couple of months, especially with all the uncertainty around COVID-19 and the broad market turmoil. What yesterday's close gives us is a bias to base our analysis on.
Personally, I was hoping for lower lows to increase my position - hope doesn't have a place in trading, check your emotions! - but now I'll be paying special attention to how bitcoin reacts on the daily and weekly charts.
On the weekly, we are trapped between the 100MA (orange line) and the 200MA (yellow line). The 100MA hasn't been a clear guide on the weekly chart, but it lines up with market structure resistance around $7000.
The weekly 200MA is the single most important level if Bitcoin wants to keep its bullish bias. It was the 200MA that ended 2018's drop, so all eyes will be looking at it if we get to retest it.
My strategy will be to scout for a weekly higher low if we retrace on the daily chart. If Bitcoin gives us that, I would be looking at the daily and 4hr charts for entries. It would be extremely healthy for our long-term perspectives if Bitcoin could do that, as it would give us a clear level to play off of moving forward.
Please comment below, I would love to start a conversation with you guys and get to know your ideas!
To be clear, this doesn't mean Bitcoin will skyrocket from here. A lot can happen in the next couple of months, especially with all the uncertainty around COVID-19 and the broad market turmoil. What yesterday's close gives us is a bias to base our analysis on.
Personally, I was hoping for lower lows to increase my position - hope doesn't have a place in trading, check your emotions! - but now I'll be paying special attention to how bitcoin reacts on the daily and weekly charts.
On the weekly, we are trapped between the 100MA (orange line) and the 200MA (yellow line). The 100MA hasn't been a clear guide on the weekly chart, but it lines up with market structure resistance around $7000.
The weekly 200MA is the single most important level if Bitcoin wants to keep its bullish bias. It was the 200MA that ended 2018's drop, so all eyes will be looking at it if we get to retest it.
My strategy will be to scout for a weekly higher low if we retrace on the daily chart. If Bitcoin gives us that, I would be looking at the daily and 4hr charts for entries. It would be extremely healthy for our long-term perspectives if Bitcoin could do that, as it would give us a clear level to play off of moving forward.
Please comment below, I would love to start a conversation with you guys and get to know your ideas!
Note
UPDATE: Forgot to mention one important aspect. Assuming the world markets behave (hah), my strategy would have to be reassessed with a convincing daily close above the current range (above $7000). There is still a lot of resistance above that level, but new support levels would come into play.
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