ROAD TO 3850, DECEMBER LONG 2630s to 2820s
Updated
This is most complete draft finish minutes ago. This is published for our group to track the move ending 12/30. Note that the 12/30, 2820s exit is simultaneously the entry for JANUARY SHORT to 2540s. 190 points in 12 days is pretty damn good reason to post this.
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Trade active
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6) 3:44 PM ET, I am aware of the 2470 pattern where this leg continues to 2470
7) the math I have continues to say 2775-2830 is favored vs 2470 for 12/30 close
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3:47 PM ET, until this math changes...
a) I am still looking for an entry long to 2775-2830 for 12/30 close
b) but I am gun shy and want to see the first move that sets up the reversal up
c) b/c while I have very strong confidence in 2775-2830 for 12/30
d) strategy requires that we wait for the entry
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3:56 PM ET, I took entry at 2592.xx with 2586 stop.
a) if it's going to move, it's got to move from here
b) the math is worth the risk bc even with 2775 ceiling...
c) it's still 180+pts from here
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4:09 PM ET, so that's my entry for this trade
a) bc I have conviction that my math is correct
b) and that worst case scenario is 2775-ish for 12/30
c) will add notes as we go
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d) and for the record, I AM BEING GREEDY HERE BC ...
e) the math says I'M SUPPOSED TO BE GREEDY HERE
f) you can always wait until 2618 to buy, etc...
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4:17 PM ET, I am looking for 2638 before midnight, New York time.
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7:50 PM ET, 2594.62... STILL IN, STILL CHASING 2775 by 12/30
a) so I have strong conviction in this LONG FROM ENTRY 2592.XX
b) mathematically speaking, WORST CASE SCENARIO I CAN SEE IS 2730-2740
c) I am still hunting for 2775, but it's obvious that stalling under 2600 means ...
d) I have to lower high target for 12/30 as time goes by
e) but as of RIGHT NOW, I HAVE TOTAL CONVICTION IN THIS LONG
f) despite price not moving since I took entry at 2592
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g) continuing in chart above....
h) and this trade should really be a hold to and maybe even through 12/30
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9:55 PM ET, 12/18, 2609.XX after tagging 2618...
a) if you replay chart at top
b) price have broken the dotted line to mark 2618
c) earlier, I said if you want to wait, you can wait for 2618 to entry
d) obviously this makes no difference to me personally...
e) as of right now, I have to believe the 12/30 ceiling is between 2775 and 2792
f) should momentum give me a reason to raise that number, I will
g) but like in chart above, price have to EXCEED BLUE AND MOVE TO CATCH YELLOW ROUTE
h) and almost have to OUTPERFORM YELLOW ROUTE in some stretch to raise that ceiling again
i) in a way, to make up for lost time...
j) otherwise, it is hard for me to raise this 12/30 ceiling past 2775-2792
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k) but I SHOULD SAY THAT THE SETUP EXISTS FOR PRICE TO CATCH YELLOW ROUTE
l) so we will see where we are Friday and Monday
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6) the biggest issue is when do we take out first box?
7) in chart above needs to be before X-mas
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8) 5:26 AM ET, here's what I see in chart above:
a) in my humbled opinion 2770s "is in the bag"
b) the questions are can we make 2790, 2800s, 2830, and 2855-2865
c) as OF THIS MINUTE IN TIME, the door is WIDE OPEN
d) but for January 1st to January 6th ceiling 2865
e) but momentum, or speed, is all that matters for this move
f) it's not completely obvious to me that this run should extend after 12/30
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g) so at 2621.xx at 5:30 AM ET in chart above with the BIG RED ARROW
h) my expectation to catch up to yellow route in chart at top is 110% alive and live
i) but the sooner the better if we want 2865
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3:44 PM ET, 2598.XX, back in at 2596.75 and ....
1) this thing is going to have to move up significantly by 10 AM tomorrow
2) if it doesn't, I don't know where this can go bc we everything I have says it should go up
3) at some point, I have to eliminate everything above 2830 bc it doesn't make sense
4) until then...
5) I am back in it 2586 stop and STILL STRONG CONVICTION FOR 2775-2830 ON 12/30
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12:32 PM ET, 12/20, I am busy so I can't update but:
6) so I am still in it and still STRONG CONVICTION FOR 2765 with 2823 high range
7) that's all I got time for...
8) will add notes later today
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