This five wave down has more than the first spot is visible. First of all, we look at the wave itself.
All ingredients of the Elliott golf are present here.
- Wave two falls within the boundaries of a retracement of 50% - 85.4% of wave one. Even better is that this happens with a pinbar, which gives a signal that a possible wave three will start.
- Wave three may not be the shortest wave (check). Looking back to wave one, it is clear at that moment that it is actually wave three.
* The extended wave three itself is a five wave as well.
* An additional point that is clearly visible here is that the extension of this wave is the fibonacci ratio 1.414 of wave 1.
- Wave four falls within the boundaries of a retracement of 23,6% - 50% of wave three.
- Wave five has approximately the same length as wave one.
* The other rules for wave five that I stick to are: wave 5 is an inverse 123.6 - 161.8% retracement or wave four or wave five is 61.8% or wave one till three.
The total wave is ended with a pinbar (see yellow eclipse). It is never certain that a wave 5 does not go futher down, but with the pinbar and al of above considered, the probability that this is the end of the wave, where wave five is as long as wave one is plausible.
What makes this total wave special is the point where it ends. The connection with a higher timeframe that has arise here is beautifully displayed beneath here. This is the reason why I post the analysis here.
On the weekly timeframe i have drawn the fibonacci ratios from a strong move up, happend between December 2015 and July 2016. After this has been done, I check for myself if this is reasonably drawn. I do this by checking the different levels. See yellow eclipses that I have drawn in the map. * The red ones can be take in account to, but i do not prefer this, because it happend even befor the upmove.
This analysis i made is to give insight into what can not happen, to look back when I discover a similar case. There is no reason for me to take a position at this moment, anymore, because on the small timeframe a movement has already been made. This upward movement has already equaled the entire wave downward.