USDCHF - the risk vs reward trade off this week
Put USDCHF on the radar - while there are many different ways this could play out this week, here are 2 clear scenario's that are front of mind.
Upside - the fed's 2024 dot moves higher in tomorrows FOMC meeting to show 2 cuts (from 3). We could also see the SNB cut rates - this is a non-consensus call with 4/24 economists calling for a 25bp cut (to 1.5%) and the Swiss swaps market pricing this outcome with 30% chance
Downside to price - the Fed leave the 2024 dot unchanged at 3 cuts, and we see 2024 GDP median estimate upgraded to 1.8% (from 1.4%), and the SNB leave rates unchanged
Risk vs reward - If the upside scenario plays out then price will likely have a far bigger move to the upside, than potential downside if scenario 2 plays out.
The daily chart looks ominously poised to breakout - momentum and trend traders will be watching to see if this triggers a move that has some duration.
Upside - the fed's 2024 dot moves higher in tomorrows FOMC meeting to show 2 cuts (from 3). We could also see the SNB cut rates - this is a non-consensus call with 4/24 economists calling for a 25bp cut (to 1.5%) and the Swiss swaps market pricing this outcome with 30% chance
Downside to price - the Fed leave the 2024 dot unchanged at 3 cuts, and we see 2024 GDP median estimate upgraded to 1.8% (from 1.4%), and the SNB leave rates unchanged
Risk vs reward - If the upside scenario plays out then price will likely have a far bigger move to the upside, than potential downside if scenario 2 plays out.
The daily chart looks ominously poised to breakout - momentum and trend traders will be watching to see if this triggers a move that has some duration.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.