QQQ Tech Sector Possible Bear Positions FB MU NFLX
I'm watching QQQ for the possibility of longer consolidation which could give nice opportunity to play some of the tech names bear. At this point I am only expecting healthy consolidation in QQQ, so far I see nothing to indicate a change in the bullish trend.
*****I'm using solid trendlines for log scale and dotted lines for linear scale. This should explain why some of the lines may appear wrong in some charts.****
On the monthly timeframe QQQ still looks great.
On the weekly, the MACD is showing bearish divergence and is close to a bear cross. RSI rejected from 70. 10MA is acting as support and we have stayed above it since April. 12EMA is approaching to act as support; it has also held since April.
Other support levels on the weekly are the last higher low at 178.12 and 175.21 which was the retest of the high from March.
Resistance is the all time high.
Weekly looks great, just consolidation at this point.
The daily timeframe RSI has been bouncing from 40-45 since April. We are currently close to these levels.
The 50MA and 55EMA have held since May and price is approaching them.
So, if QQQ appears to be strong, why am I looking to short individual names? For the first time, the daily on QQQ has confirmed a close below the trendline that has acted as support since April. Last week the weekly candle also closed below it for the first time; If we close below this trendline on Friday we will be confirming the weekly close below it. This could lead to nice bear entries in individual names that are showing weakness, especially if we can close daily candles below the 50Ma and 55EMA on QQQ. We also need to see either weakness or indecision in SPY. SPY strength could ruin these plays.
FB log scale:
FB linear scale:
On the monthly timeframe we have seen a bearish MACD cross and a failure swing in the RSI after it came down from overbought levels.
The 10MA is sloping down for the first time in years. The 12EMA is sloping down and the 26EMA is flattening out.
On the weekly we have finally closed below the trendline on the log scale, and bulls will need to show up soon or we will confirm that bearish candle close at the end of this week. At this point we are still holding above the weekly trendline on the linear scale, though we dipped below it last week. I want to see a close below the linear trendline because it aligns with the 26EMA that is still acting as support.
Weekly EMAs are starting to look ugly with 12EMA and 26EMA both getting close to crossing below 55EMA for first time ever.
After falling below, we retested and rejected from the 50MA. 10/20/50MAs are tangling up/crossing bearish, but 100MA is still acting as support.
MACD is getting extended so I would expect a short-term bounce soon, though RSI still has room to go before oversold.
Daily EMAs are aligned bearish from top to bottom: 55/26/12. Daily MAs are all sloping down, and the 50MA is approaching a possible cross below the 200MA.
Im looking for short entries if we get a short term bounce on the daily timeframe and I will add to my position if we close below the weekly trendlines.
MU log scale:
MU linear scale:
We might have seen a failure swing in RSI because monthly is coming down from overbought and is showing a possible rejection from 70.
MACD is on the verge of a bear cross.
MA/EMAs still look great on the monthly, though.
On the weekly timeframe price rejected from the previous supporting log trendline and is now testing linear supporting trendline.
Price is currently under EMAs, and 12/26 crossed bear for first time since July 2016 after retesting and rejecting from them.
Price is below 10/20/50MAs. 10/20MA crossed bear, and they are starting to approach the 50MA. 50MA is flattening out.
Macd getting extended so we could see a short-term bounce soon.
Daily emas/mas look bad. Price is below 10/20/50/100/200 MA. There is a potential bear flag playing out on the daily.
NFLX linear scale:
NFLX on the weekly closed below 10/20MA and 12EMA. 10/20MA crossed bearish first time in over 2 year. I'm watching to see if this week's candle closes below them to confirm.
Many daily MAs have sloped down/tangled up/price has moved below them since the all-time highs. They look worse than earlier this year when we had the pullback in SPY, and worse than the March-May consolidation in NFLX. We retested and rejected from 50ma recently, and I will look to enter short if we approch it, with a stop above 376.81.
At this point I am seeing the price action from the low of Aug 17 as an oversold bounce on the daily timeframe. If bulls are going to regain control we will probably need to see a lower high compared to 376.81, higher low compared to 335.83, and then a higher high. However, will be in a short position and will be looking for bears to form a lower high compared to 376.81 followed by a lower low compared to 335.83.
MAs on the 4h timeframe have all crossed below 200ma for first time since Aug 2016; 200ma is still sloping up but flattening out.
I'm also scouting names for potential long entries. Currently, AMZN and NVDA look nice if I find an entry level during consolidation. I may post ideas for them later.
*****I'm using solid trendlines for log scale and dotted lines for linear scale. This should explain why some of the lines may appear wrong in some charts.****
On the monthly timeframe QQQ still looks great.
On the weekly, the MACD is showing bearish divergence and is close to a bear cross. RSI rejected from 70. 10MA is acting as support and we have stayed above it since April. 12EMA is approaching to act as support; it has also held since April.
Other support levels on the weekly are the last higher low at 178.12 and 175.21 which was the retest of the high from March.
Resistance is the all time high.
Weekly looks great, just consolidation at this point.
The daily timeframe RSI has been bouncing from 40-45 since April. We are currently close to these levels.
The 50MA and 55EMA have held since May and price is approaching them.
So, if QQQ appears to be strong, why am I looking to short individual names? For the first time, the daily on QQQ has confirmed a close below the trendline that has acted as support since April. Last week the weekly candle also closed below it for the first time; If we close below this trendline on Friday we will be confirming the weekly close below it. This could lead to nice bear entries in individual names that are showing weakness, especially if we can close daily candles below the 50Ma and 55EMA on QQQ. We also need to see either weakness or indecision in SPY. SPY strength could ruin these plays.
FB log scale:
FB linear scale:
On the monthly timeframe we have seen a bearish MACD cross and a failure swing in the RSI after it came down from overbought levels.
The 10MA is sloping down for the first time in years. The 12EMA is sloping down and the 26EMA is flattening out.
On the weekly we have finally closed below the trendline on the log scale, and bulls will need to show up soon or we will confirm that bearish candle close at the end of this week. At this point we are still holding above the weekly trendline on the linear scale, though we dipped below it last week. I want to see a close below the linear trendline because it aligns with the 26EMA that is still acting as support.
Weekly EMAs are starting to look ugly with 12EMA and 26EMA both getting close to crossing below 55EMA for first time ever.
After falling below, we retested and rejected from the 50MA. 10/20/50MAs are tangling up/crossing bearish, but 100MA is still acting as support.
MACD is getting extended so I would expect a short-term bounce soon, though RSI still has room to go before oversold.
Daily EMAs are aligned bearish from top to bottom: 55/26/12. Daily MAs are all sloping down, and the 50MA is approaching a possible cross below the 200MA.
Im looking for short entries if we get a short term bounce on the daily timeframe and I will add to my position if we close below the weekly trendlines.
MU log scale:
MU linear scale:
We might have seen a failure swing in RSI because monthly is coming down from overbought and is showing a possible rejection from 70.
MACD is on the verge of a bear cross.
MA/EMAs still look great on the monthly, though.
On the weekly timeframe price rejected from the previous supporting log trendline and is now testing linear supporting trendline.
Price is currently under EMAs, and 12/26 crossed bear for first time since July 2016 after retesting and rejecting from them.
Price is below 10/20/50MAs. 10/20MA crossed bear, and they are starting to approach the 50MA. 50MA is flattening out.
Macd getting extended so we could see a short-term bounce soon.
Daily emas/mas look bad. Price is below 10/20/50/100/200 MA. There is a potential bear flag playing out on the daily.
NFLX linear scale:
NFLX on the weekly closed below 10/20MA and 12EMA. 10/20MA crossed bearish first time in over 2 year. I'm watching to see if this week's candle closes below them to confirm.
Many daily MAs have sloped down/tangled up/price has moved below them since the all-time highs. They look worse than earlier this year when we had the pullback in SPY, and worse than the March-May consolidation in NFLX. We retested and rejected from 50ma recently, and I will look to enter short if we approch it, with a stop above 376.81.
At this point I am seeing the price action from the low of Aug 17 as an oversold bounce on the daily timeframe. If bulls are going to regain control we will probably need to see a lower high compared to 376.81, higher low compared to 335.83, and then a higher high. However, will be in a short position and will be looking for bears to form a lower high compared to 376.81 followed by a lower low compared to 335.83.
MAs on the 4h timeframe have all crossed below 200ma for first time since Aug 2016; 200ma is still sloping up but flattening out.
I'm also scouting names for potential long entries. Currently, AMZN and NVDA look nice if I find an entry level during consolidation. I may post ideas for them later.
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