Gold FuturesShort
Gold plunges as Trump 'trumps' seasonals
Last week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December, given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that.
Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead.
The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460.
note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce.
Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio.
MS
Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead.
The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460.
note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce.
Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio.
MS
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