Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EUR/USD: Significance of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci levels
Hello fellow traders
Happy Monday or in my case happy Sunday from San Francisco, CA.
I would like to start on a deeply personal level. Please indulge me.
My current profile picture is of my beloved 12 year old Abyssinian boy, Jagger, who passed after a brief struggle with cancer. It shattered our family, including his little sister, Daisy Duke, who shared her grief at 6AM every morning by walking around, looking for him. But time heals. I am honoring him in my profile because for 12 years he was my trading companion, always hanging out on top of my office chair, until it was time to nudge me to prepare their meal.
Why am I telling you this??? I forged ahead but made some really bad trading decisions while I was struggling with my grief. I found some closure when I received the urn with his remains.
Point being, we are human beings who struggle with all kinds of personal issues on a daily basis.
Do not trade if you are distracted, sleep deprived or dealing with other negativity.
We are not AI bots who make trading decisions. So, if you do not find joy in preparing a chart like this, take a walk around the block or unpack the dishwasher. Tomorrow is another day and the market will still be there.
I have all kinds of EUR/USD layouts saved that reflect a huge number of indicators, most of which I do understand but do not always use to make a trading decision. In my mind, it is just price that counts ultimately and everything else is just the road map. Example, EUR/USD looks like it will still close in the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart.
I attempted to identify important Bollinger Bands on the 2D chart which includes 8H and 2H upper bands which act as resistance.
As you can see, the Fibonacci levels correspond almost exactly to important weekly levels.
That includes the seldom used 0.114 level. Use that and the 0.886 level on your charts. Very useful.
I am monitoring the 1.1190 level to initiate a short ahead of this week's USD data. ADP on Wednesday, Jobless claims on Thursday and the grand finale, NFP on Friday.
MEDIA: Please attribute rate probabilities used in your reporting to “CME FedWatch.”
CME still projects a 53% possibility of another 50base points cut in November.
But in the meanwhile we still have Eurozone CPI on Oct 16th and the rate decision the next day.
I believe that NFP will shake things up but we still have to wait for October NFP before the next FOMC meeting.
I was neutral in my last idea
but am now looking at shorting EUR/USD at 1.1190 or higher. Price can still reach the levels above 1.12 but I believe we'll just see more rejection. On the down side the weekly high at 1.1139 is just below the 1.1146 level that printed during the NY session. Below that we could see a return to the weekly close of 1.1085 ahead of NFP.
Good luck!
Happy Monday or in my case happy Sunday from San Francisco, CA.
I would like to start on a deeply personal level. Please indulge me.
My current profile picture is of my beloved 12 year old Abyssinian boy, Jagger, who passed after a brief struggle with cancer. It shattered our family, including his little sister, Daisy Duke, who shared her grief at 6AM every morning by walking around, looking for him. But time heals. I am honoring him in my profile because for 12 years he was my trading companion, always hanging out on top of my office chair, until it was time to nudge me to prepare their meal.
Why am I telling you this??? I forged ahead but made some really bad trading decisions while I was struggling with my grief. I found some closure when I received the urn with his remains.
Point being, we are human beings who struggle with all kinds of personal issues on a daily basis.
Do not trade if you are distracted, sleep deprived or dealing with other negativity.
We are not AI bots who make trading decisions. So, if you do not find joy in preparing a chart like this, take a walk around the block or unpack the dishwasher. Tomorrow is another day and the market will still be there.
I have all kinds of EUR/USD layouts saved that reflect a huge number of indicators, most of which I do understand but do not always use to make a trading decision. In my mind, it is just price that counts ultimately and everything else is just the road map. Example, EUR/USD looks like it will still close in the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart.
I attempted to identify important Bollinger Bands on the 2D chart which includes 8H and 2H upper bands which act as resistance.
As you can see, the Fibonacci levels correspond almost exactly to important weekly levels.
That includes the seldom used 0.114 level. Use that and the 0.886 level on your charts. Very useful.
I am monitoring the 1.1190 level to initiate a short ahead of this week's USD data. ADP on Wednesday, Jobless claims on Thursday and the grand finale, NFP on Friday.
MEDIA: Please attribute rate probabilities used in your reporting to “CME FedWatch.”
CME still projects a 53% possibility of another 50base points cut in November.
But in the meanwhile we still have Eurozone CPI on Oct 16th and the rate decision the next day.
I believe that NFP will shake things up but we still have to wait for October NFP before the next FOMC meeting.
I was neutral in my last idea
but am now looking at shorting EUR/USD at 1.1190 or higher. Price can still reach the levels above 1.12 but I believe we'll just see more rejection. On the down side the weekly high at 1.1139 is just below the 1.1146 level that printed during the NY session. Below that we could see a return to the weekly close of 1.1085 ahead of NFP.
Good luck!
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