Slice and dice EUR/USD price action
Hello Traders
Happy new trading week. US markets are closed tomorrow, so beware of impulse price movements.
I have initiated a long EUR/USD position at 1.0917.
I looked at the impulse price movement after the US CPI and weekly jobless claims to determine the reason for the initial price low/high. And not surprisingly, it corresponds to a two day closing level both ways.
This is important because I believe that these are levels that the market makers(Banks, governments, hedge funds, pension funds etc. etc.) regard as support/resistance in conjunction with asset classes like the USD 10Y, Gold and of course the DXY. And they have teams of people and AI that can do that immediate deep dive into the data, to determine direction after that initial knee jerk reaction to conflicting data. My opinion is that BTC is also on their radar. I certainly follow these levels daily.
As a follow up to consider a long at the monthly close of 1.0888, I did a deep dive to see on which time frames the breakout on the monthly chart was validated with retracement to that level on the shorter time frames. The hourly chart shows the retracement that validates it as support and so does the weekly chart. One caveat, there is a gap up from 1.0870-1.0881 that was not filled.
My reasons for going long:
8H and lower time frames were extremely oversold but rose above the 30 level
Price hit the lower BB on 2H chart
8/5/24 weekly close at 1.0916
Last 2D close before moving up to 1.1200 is at 1.0916
The monthly slow EMA 9/26 is at 1.0903
Lastly, ECB rate and CPI decision coming up in 4 days.
A sustained move above 1.0955 will be great confirmation.
I am not claiming that I cracked the Da Vinci code of EUR/USD trading but these price levels do make some sense.
But, of course, do your own research and best of luck as always.
Happy new trading week. US markets are closed tomorrow, so beware of impulse price movements.
I have initiated a long EUR/USD position at 1.0917.
I looked at the impulse price movement after the US CPI and weekly jobless claims to determine the reason for the initial price low/high. And not surprisingly, it corresponds to a two day closing level both ways.
This is important because I believe that these are levels that the market makers(Banks, governments, hedge funds, pension funds etc. etc.) regard as support/resistance in conjunction with asset classes like the USD 10Y, Gold and of course the DXY. And they have teams of people and AI that can do that immediate deep dive into the data, to determine direction after that initial knee jerk reaction to conflicting data. My opinion is that BTC is also on their radar. I certainly follow these levels daily.
As a follow up to consider a long at the monthly close of 1.0888, I did a deep dive to see on which time frames the breakout on the monthly chart was validated with retracement to that level on the shorter time frames. The hourly chart shows the retracement that validates it as support and so does the weekly chart. One caveat, there is a gap up from 1.0870-1.0881 that was not filled.
My reasons for going long:
8H and lower time frames were extremely oversold but rose above the 30 level
Price hit the lower BB on 2H chart
8/5/24 weekly close at 1.0916
Last 2D close before moving up to 1.1200 is at 1.0916
The monthly slow EMA 9/26 is at 1.0903
Lastly, ECB rate and CPI decision coming up in 4 days.
A sustained move above 1.0955 will be great confirmation.
I am not claiming that I cracked the Da Vinci code of EUR/USD trading but these price levels do make some sense.
But, of course, do your own research and best of luck as always.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.