ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectations
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/un0RymA8/
The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Wednesday, December 18th, 2024
These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain.
Additional Economic Data
The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends.
Key Levels to Watch:
Target for Bulls: 6295-6310
Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055
R1: 6105-6115
R2: 6145-6155
R3: 6195-6205
S1: 5970-5960
S2: 5855-5835
Key Support S3: 5735-5745
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally
In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025.
Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback
Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move.
Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend.
This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Wednesday, December 18th, 2024
- FED Interest Rate Decision
- Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
- FOMC Meeting
These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain.
Additional Economic Data
The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends.
Key Levels to Watch:
Target for Bulls: 6295-6310
Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055
R1: 6105-6115
R2: 6145-6155
R3: 6195-6205
S1: 5970-5960
S2: 5855-5835
Key Support S3: 5735-5745
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally
In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025.
Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback
Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move.
Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend.
This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.