DXY IDEA
DXY Monthly EMA50 has cut EMA200 from below side on 2015 December.
That's the moment we have confirmed the uptrend for DXY.
This uptrend has been set when FED has announced QE is over in 2014 Q3
Dollar Cycles generally lasts long, 5 years.
Expensive Dollar, 1992-2001 - and dot.com crisis.
Globalization, Cheap Dollar, 2001-2014...
Expensive Dollar, 2014 - 2020.
So the test was massive this time, tested 92.50 on Monthly,which is the EMA50 92.50.
Next week is utmost critical as well. Consider DXY as the titanic. not a small boat. once you set the direction by Monthly EMAs, you can just say "well, changed my mind, let go to south instead of north." that's not a "superpower" can afford. cause, all "political allies" has been informed, probably, on 2014Q1 that Expensive dollar age will begin, and the allies has been positioned accordingly.
So if US would turn now and say , "sorry guys, changed my mind" - that would hurt allies. Which will create questions on pax-americana, and the abilities of keeping a promise by the "superpower".
so 92.50 was the critical, there might be temporary lows, (check 1998, same story, in the age of expensive dollar, the trend tested its lows lows,due to "clinton impeachment" sounds familiar? there is always a story once the president wants to step out of what "establishment" says.
he returns back to establishment lines, or, you know.
This is my expectation, Fundemantal supports the theory. Technical part supports the theory.
i expect a DXY swing towards 100.00 (probably 99ish) until the Germany Elections, Or an extended run, to the October 2018, FED Interest/total asset talks...
That's the moment we have confirmed the uptrend for DXY.
This uptrend has been set when FED has announced QE is over in 2014 Q3
Dollar Cycles generally lasts long, 5 years.
Expensive Dollar, 1992-2001 - and dot.com crisis.
Globalization, Cheap Dollar, 2001-2014...
Expensive Dollar, 2014 - 2020.
So the test was massive this time, tested 92.50 on Monthly,which is the EMA50 92.50.
Next week is utmost critical as well. Consider DXY as the titanic. not a small boat. once you set the direction by Monthly EMAs, you can just say "well, changed my mind, let go to south instead of north." that's not a "superpower" can afford. cause, all "political allies" has been informed, probably, on 2014Q1 that Expensive dollar age will begin, and the allies has been positioned accordingly.
So if US would turn now and say , "sorry guys, changed my mind" - that would hurt allies. Which will create questions on pax-americana, and the abilities of keeping a promise by the "superpower".
so 92.50 was the critical, there might be temporary lows, (check 1998, same story, in the age of expensive dollar, the trend tested its lows lows,due to "clinton impeachment" sounds familiar? there is always a story once the president wants to step out of what "establishment" says.
he returns back to establishment lines, or, you know.
This is my expectation, Fundemantal supports the theory. Technical part supports the theory.
i expect a DXY swing towards 100.00 (probably 99ish) until the Germany Elections, Or an extended run, to the October 2018, FED Interest/total asset talks...
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