The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lagged the broader market for a long time because of its relative lack of concentration in large growth stocks. Could that become a virtue as sentiment shifts away from megacaps?
The first pattern on today’s chart is 40,000. DJI stalled at this psychologically important level in May but ripped through it early in the second half. The index pulled back and bounced there last week. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, the breakout was preceded by a series of higher weekly lows. That may suggest that longer-term buyers were active.
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) was close to the 100-day SMA in early July, which may create potential for price expansion. Also notice how the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. That may reflect a bullish short-term trend.
The short-term EMAs interestingly contrast with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. (Both have faster EMAs below the slower ones, which is potentially bearish.)
Here’s another notable difference: DJI’s pullback last week retraced a mere nine sessions of upward movement. SPX and NDX erased more than 25 days of gains. That could also signal more short-term strength.
Last, TradeStation data shows that Financials just took leadership to become the top-performing sector on a year-to-date basis. They also have the biggest weighting in DJI.
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