Hello.
My last analysis of BTCUSD was around 280 days ago. The Price Prediction Was almost pinpoint. But The timing was aweful so in this analysis I don't have any comments on TIMING of the analysis.
Back to ANALYSIS, Based on the Elliott Wave theory, I see two possible scenarios:
Scenario A (Blue drawings) (This is more likely to happen) : We are still in the 5th Wave of Supercycle. And Also at the end of 4th wave of minor Cycle. In this scenario, we would see BTC bounce back from 25k and start the 5th wave of minor cycle and go all the way to 90-100k.
Scenario B (Pink drawing) (At this point, its possible.) : We've reached the end of BTC's last minor cycle at 68k and now, we are in wave A of the SuperCycle. This wave can end at 25k and bounce back up to 43k to 49k zone, and then starts disappointing everyone and start the C wave of Supercycle by falling down all the way to maximum 15k price. (18k is more likely to be the big pivot point) After that, (it might take years tho) we can get prepared for the Wave 3 of The Bigger SuperCycle.
Considering the Two scenarios, only a blackswan event would take BTC lower than 14k, and the first target that could be easily reach is 68K. therefore, Buying at 25k would be a wise decision. You wouldn't be left out. And in case of a black Swan event. you'd loss much less.
Author: Saeid Rajabzadeh.