I'm going to progress on TA in updates

Updated

Zooming out to the 1 day, taking a simple look at a very similarly setup from April 3rd / 4th.
If we can assess on smaller time frames a weakness in this rally/ squeeze I can feel comfortable in the price moving down.
BTC has been relying on levels quite a bit lately so I've put more weight on them right now.
Because market is still somewhat split I am also giving more weight to moving averages using them as support and resistance, and you'll see this on the smaller time frames when I update as well.

Anyone that follows me will know my last TA got REKT, lol. I followed that price movement the whole way for 12 hours and it moved how I knew it would all the way to the point of make or break. Over confidence in how i thought the price /should/ behave was my bane. Next time I will set up buy and sell stops above and below the breakout. Let's get smarter.

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On the 4hr chart we seen the triangle we broke out of might not represented a break out of a bear pennant. Reasons for finding the pennant invalid are 1: pennants are continuation patterns, 2: volume died off after the break out forming the channel we see now. This could either be a bear flag forming or what I more likely think is a channel that will trade sideways for a while. I believe it is a channel because the projected target for the flag is a bit extreme at a price roughly at 5400, though 5,4 is still possible it does require a new confirmed level of doubt or panic from the market.
The resistance of this channel is quite strong where price stands right now (viz. 38.2% retrace, 12ema on the daily (72ema on 4hr), longs vs shorts).
The longs at the moment are pressing into their 12 day ema as resistance while the shorts are sitting on the 12 day ema as support. The weight of the ema relationship between shorts/longs and btc:usd is ambiguous but I thought it was interesting to see a trifactor at current price.

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On the 1hr, the 9ema has show itself to mark the resistance zones for this choppy price action. When price movement is below and approaching the line without structures in place to push volume, it is rejected. The two times price moved above the 9ema the line acted as a weak but present positive force. Right now as the price threatens to go below or stay above the 9ema is an important moment to watch.
Note we are coming up to another structural resistance (seen by the dashed lines), it may be either the wedge sharing the same origin point for resistance as the first wedge/ symmetrical triangle, or the wedge extended from that higher origin point. Price movement may of course print neither.
Looking at the CMF we notice an important difference in this swing high than the last swing high. Our current swing high has more buying pressure; a result of buy stops triggered on the way up. It is important to recognise this buy pressure was from traders taking advantage of the previous structure and is less likely to be a natural growing of faith returning to the market, marking the start of a bull run. To some it may look like this, resulting in bulls giving one more rally up. I don't expect this rally to be strong and find where I've marked on the chart to be a nice entry to short.
The only thing that will cause a higher right now rally is a significant lack of interest shown by the bears.

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sorry, wrong snapshot. correction below:

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On the 15min chart, the OBV shows bulls coming back. This is represented by the amount of volume needed to move price. For example, if the price jumps but the OBV does not we can expect few bears lost on the trade but had stepped out of the game for a better position. On the chart where a red arrow marks the OBV we see bulls fought hard to keep the price at this level, because the OBV retraces the swing high entirely, while the price remained in the supper range. To me it seems the bears have a hold at this resistance and are just waiting for a better position to show their numbers.
The 1hr 9ema has also proved itself again with the bounce just showing here.

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Looking at BTCUSDlongs we can see the 1hr 9ema has bounced each touch, showing a small push into our safe buy zone could happen. However we also see a similar formation happening at the previous high, where longs plummeted. There is a lot of room for shorts and long to converge, as they have many times in the past. Because of this I don't feel shorts have much head wind here - as I said before, the bears seem to hold this position well and are just waiting for a better position to show their numbers. If bulls aren't ready to fight here, we'll just see longs trickle down and potentially plummet again. Given this information, I am going to open a short at this price, and a heavier short in the safe zone.

Disclaimer: this is not trade advice. it is a record for others to see my win:loss ratio so they know how much weight my TA has.

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safe sell zone** not buy zone

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Price made a lower low but OBV a higher low. This means the sell pressure is getting over extended. The price corrected but now we see it higher than the OBV (grey line). These are minor time frame divergences and don't mean much, but if price will correct itself once more and push below the 9ema, the bulls will start giving up and if the price can print one of those dotted lines it'll bring that structure into existence: a new resistance. This may change the channel into another wedge.
Expecting a spike up right before the drop just 'coz.

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very unusual distribution during that bull rally. I wonder if this marked something significant. I would not expect this resistance to be taken lightly after that.

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looking at the longs, looks we didnt have a perfect play out of the second scenario, while the price action took the action of the first. lol, you can never call these things. Most of the bulls turned up at this battle. I can't see another rally happening soon. Bears need to stay strong and realise they are still holding this zone. If price doesn't drop below 6720 things'll get dicey again.

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Trade Closed. Took small profits.
Price action wants to move down but there is so much new buying pressure coming in. BTCUSDlongs have now entirely retraced from the short squeeze, meaning an equal number of longs have taken profit as the number of longs who had positions fill during that squeeze. This is represented in the OBV too. Alarmingly, price has hardly moved down. Way too risky to think bulls won't come back in numbers again here and try to reach their 7k target. I don't think we won't retest the lower channel but its not worth the risk, because if they break the next resistance price could form a trend and you don't want to be stuck. I think the market has already shown it is ready for a bull run. I'll probably look for a good long entry for my next position.

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Given the hard turn accumulation took at the double top, how price moves over the next day or two will be quite telling if we really are accumulating here or going further. that 7k target is almost unreachable in my opinion, but if price trades sideways for, let's say a week, while retesting our support to confirm which support structure the market will be using, I'll have to assume we're at the bottom.

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After a long fight last night BTCbears finally pushed back. Looking at the OBV I believe they over-exerted themselves for this win. I see this ascending wedge structure potentially in play (marked in dashed line). We'll need to see another reactionary low to confirm it. The play is to use the pressure at the end to break through the major resistances. "Buy the dip" they said.. well this play does make this look like a spring. If the market breaks that zone it gives A LOT of information for institutional investment, it shows how ready the market is for years, because if we can defend 6k it says no one cares about the crash, this is the future! On the other hand, what a beautiful bull trap, hey? If this wedge is indeed in play, I know I won't be in a position like last time when I was so sure it would break down. Let's get smarter and put a buy stop entry above where a fake breakout would stop. We'll be able to hold this long for a while without checking the price every scalping minute XD

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Next chart:
Will be taking some time to rule out any other likely scenarios before making next TA

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looking at the Longs again. exact same setup?

MilkBread

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