Long

Was waiting for the signal before posting this

Updated

I'll keep adding updates here until the range is invalid or complete.

Wyckoff tests for accumulation:
1. Downside price objective accomplished – P&F chart
2. Preliminary support, selling climax, secondary test - Bar and P&F charts
3. Activity bullish (volume increases on rallies and diminishes during reactions) – Bar chart
4. Downward stride broken (that is, supply line or downtrend line penetrated) - Bar or P&F chart
5. Higher lows - Bar or P&F chart
6. Higher highs - Bar or P&F chart
7. Stock stronger than the market (that is, stock more responsive on rallies and more resistant to reactions than the market index) - Bar chart
8. Base forming (horizontal price line) – Bar or P&F chart
9. Estimated upside profit potential is at least three times the loss if the initial stop-loss were hit – P&F and bar charts

Note

if this harmonic doesn't play out I'm afraid this range is already invalid.

Note

Over the next 24 hours how ratio of longs to shorts relative to price will provide a good indication how strong demand is in this trading range. If we don't get a second test in phase B it'll be pretty risking short trading the swings because this bottom won't pan out for long, unless bulls get demoralised after too many tests at the resistance. It is interesting to see Longs actually increase (though ever so slightly) during this drop - i thought the drop would be due to longs pulling out.

Note

excellent! Price crashed from overstaying in resistance. And we see the long:short ratio unaffected! This shows us Long positions aren't playing with high leverage, giving support to the idea of this range being valid as big bags are accumulating. A perfect play would retest support without a strong rally and dipping into a spring. If these new lows find low volume we can assume people are scared to short the bottom, and we'll be on our way for a mark up. I expect a mark up of 8k to 10k by the end of the year if we don't drop below 5,8.

Note

An old Fib Speed Resistance/Support Fan i had in place is surprisingly still in play. I wish i had remembered it. I discovered it about an hour or two ago looking back at old charts. I wanted to wait to see if it was still valid, and it looks like price did drop on that line. I expect price to play between the dotted trend support and the fan's resistance in the buy zone. If the volume dies off that's when I'll put in a higher leverage long.

Note

This TR may soon become invalid if 6k don't hold. The volume is not dying off at the secondary test in phase b, meaning there is still too much doubt in the market. Even if the range holds for now, I still expect to see sub 6k levels. Only in a spring will 5,7k be okay with low volume. If the range holds here we might very well see that, as bears are in disbelief the bulls held. Worryingly there are little consolidated support zones below 6k, and we'll get a mass waterfall of Longs getting liquidated; I'm starting to believe the short squeeze played into a bull trap. Are Bulls underwater or stacking on low leverage? It would be an easier game to be in fiat right now. Good luck.

MilkBread

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