Short

BITCOIN : Load the FOMO train, capitulation coming

Updated

Huge bearish divergence forming on 4Hr.
BTC Overbought on daily for the first time since December.
BTC Dominance at all time high since 8 months.
Alts bleeding hard, everybody selling to put money in BTC, making BTC break important key levels, to make people think bull run has started.
No retracement since the completion of inverse H&S.
People buying anticipating ETF Decision.

My point of view ? BTC is going to consolidate for the rest of the week. Probably going to 8.4k$ maximum. Might see some whicks above, but that will be it. Then we will see a huge sell off leading to capitulation. THEN, Bull run will be able to start.

100% Cryptosaurus Rex Certified.

Note

Went up to test 8400 as mentionned, a little bit earlier than expected. Big rejection explained by massive profit taking.
FOMO in full effect backing price up to 8200 area.
MACD and RSI divergence confirmed on the 4 Hrs timeframe.
Should consolidate sideways from now on until resuming downtrend.

Note

From what I'm figuring out, alts won't have any crazy rally until the ETF decision comes in unless new money is pumped in, which will likely not happen. They might catch up a little during BTC consolidation, but that will be it, do not expect +70% gains on alt as they should, minimum, when BTC gets 30% in a week.

This could be a huge "buy the rumour, sell the news" orientated towards BTC.
We might consolidate now, even test 8.6 - 8.7 range.
Retrace won't be as soon as expected because people will hold BTC until ETF decision comes. Positive ETF news will result in a little news sell-off to rally on alts. Negative ETF news will result in a BTC crash, leading to a healthy capitulation of the market before resuming long term uptrend.

Note

I would like to post a quick update on the overall ETF FOMO situation. I came across a tweet from Jake Chervinsky, who is a Government enforcement defense & securities litigation attorney for the United States. His insight on the ETF situation is very concise and easy to understand and I would like to share it with you all :

QUOTE :

The SEC can, and probably will, delay its decision on the VanEck/SolidX commodity-backed #bitcoin ETF until ~February 21, 2019.
Some background. Unlike other types of funds (like mutual funds, closed-end funds, etc.), the federal securities laws did not originally provide for ETFs. As a result, ETFs have to obtain an individualized exemptive order from the SEC before going to market.
The timing of the ETF approval process follows a standard formula:
- the ETF files a "proposed rule change" with the SEC;
- the SEC posts notice of the filing in the Federal Register and solicits comments; and
- the SEC has 45 days from posting to approve or deny the ETF.
Except the SEC doesn't have to decide within 45 days. It can extend the deadline up to three times:
- 45 more days if "a longer period is appropriate";
- 90 more days for the ETF to address grounds for disapproval; and
- 60 more days if again "a longer period is appropriate."

This means the real deadline for the SEC to approve or deny an ETF is 240 days after it files notice in the Federal Register (45+45+90+60).
Yet, because of how the law works, the SEC can't just set a 240-day deadline from the jump. It has to do the extensions one at a time.
Today, the SEC extended its deadline to approve or deny the Direxion futures-backed bitcoin ETF by 60 days; the new deadline is September 21.
This is the third & final extension allowed by law -- 15 U.S.C. § 78s(b)(2), in case you were wondering.
Coindesk reported: "Notably, none of the ETF proposals being postponed are from VanEck and SolidX[.]"
But this isn't notable at all. The deadline to approve or deny the Direxion ETF was July 23. As explained, the SEC waits until the deadline before issuing another extension.
The SEC wasn't making a decision about all of the pending bitcoin ETFs today; it was just handling the next step in the process for the Direxion ETF.
It had absolutely no reason (or justification) to address the VanEck/SolidX ETF. The fact it didn't do so is meaningless. The SEC's timing on the Direxion ETF is totally standard:

- Notice originally posted on January 24;
- First extension issued on March 1 (~45 days later);
- Second extension issued on April 23 (~45 days later); and
- Third extension issued on July 24 (~90 days later).
So the standard timing for the VanEck/SolidX ETF would be:

- Notice was originally posted on June 26;
- First extension expected ~August 10 (45 days later);
- Second extension expected ~September 24 (45 days later); and
- Third extension expected ~December 23 (90 days later).
Add 60 days to December 23 and you get a final deadline of February 21, 2019.
This could move forward or back by a few days (e.g., because December 23 is a Sunday and the SEC may be closed on December 24/25 too), but late February is the most likely target for a decision.
I understand if hopium has you thinking "okay, but just because the SEC *can* delay doesn't mean it will."
Sure, that's fine in theory. But I can't imagine the SEC will approve the first ever bitcoin ETF without taking all the time allowed by law.

Sorry. Get ready to wait." END QUOTE

This is concise development that is fueling the theory I currently have on the current market sentiment. I would expect that once the ETF gets delayed mid august, we will see the clear direction this markets wants to go. In my opinion, it is down. Currently, the general FOMO is leading us up at a rate far beyond any expectable technical analysis. Expect the reversal to be just as brutal. Stay open minded, research, and don't get fooled by a few green candles. Time will tell !

Note

Futures expire today. As in 70% of the previous futures expiry date, market tanked. This one is no exception. Correlation to the bearish divergence that has shown it's effectiveness.

I'm not going to try and forecast short term action, I don't have a crystal ball available. But here is what an analysis can say : If we do make another drop, we should watch for a potential bullish divergence on the 1hr frame, as RSI was oversold. If next momentum is up, breaking previous top, we should watch for bearish divergence on 4hr and daily timeframes. My personal opinion would be that this was the futures dip, and that we will be back on the consolidating-upward trend.

BTC can try to reach as high as 9100 area with good volume. I don't see it going higher than this before resuming final path down to BTC's 2018 bottom, which will probably be brutal if it happens. Exciting times.

Its_Gui

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