BitcoinLong
Zoom out and see the bigger picture for Bitcoin
First of all, I'm extremely bullish on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies long term. I think they have tremendous fundamental value, and this is not a fad that is just going to pass. In saying that, I do not believe we are about to enter another bull run. Almost every long-term indicator suggests that we need a substantial period of consolidation after the mayhem of Q3 and Q4 of 2017. I understand the market conditions were different in 2014-2015 (Mt. Gox hack etc), but there is arguably a comparable amount of FUD floating around these days too (regulation, market manipulation, more hacks). My guess is that we will see a retest of the most prominent trendline in all of BTC's history before we enter the next bull market. This timing should coincide with a large amount of adoption of cryptocurrencies into our every day lives. We're already starting to see adoption on a small level, but its just not quite there yet. You might believe so, but remember you're currently part of a niche group of people interested in this space, and we need the general public to believe what you and I believe before we see that kind of adoption (and corresponding price growth).
From a technical analysis standpoint:
(TA has its limitations, but I think where it works best is when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and keep it simple)
On the monthly chart
- See chart for the long-term trendline in white. I think we should see it tested around the end of 2018/start of 2019.
- Notice the cyclic nature of the RSI. We need to reset the monthly RSI back to around 44-50.
- The death cross and cross below the 12 month MA (blue line) have only happened once before in bitcoin's lifetime - in mid 2014. This substantiates my belief that we will see this current scenario play out in a similar fashion.
I'm not going to throw out a prediction for a price target by a particular date, as the only thing I am certain of is that I will be wrong. In terms of my own trading strategy, I am going to be accumulating on dips for the next 6 months or so. If you're a fan of Wyckhoff style analysis, this is a prime example of an accumulation phase. If institutional/smart money is coming in, they're creeping in slowly in times like these. One thing I won't be doing is day trading. That's a surefire way for us retail investors to get absolutely rekd in this market. You can do whatever you want.
Anyway, I'm sure a whole lot of people will lambaste me for throwing out FUD and a lack of confidence in this market, but I don't really mind. Throw it at me lol. I wrote this cause I was bored of working on my PhD, so by all means make this more entertaining for me.
From a technical analysis standpoint:
(TA has its limitations, but I think where it works best is when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and keep it simple)
On the monthly chart
- See chart for the long-term trendline in white. I think we should see it tested around the end of 2018/start of 2019.
- Notice the cyclic nature of the RSI. We need to reset the monthly RSI back to around 44-50.
- The death cross and cross below the 12 month MA (blue line) have only happened once before in bitcoin's lifetime - in mid 2014. This substantiates my belief that we will see this current scenario play out in a similar fashion.
I'm not going to throw out a prediction for a price target by a particular date, as the only thing I am certain of is that I will be wrong. In terms of my own trading strategy, I am going to be accumulating on dips for the next 6 months or so. If you're a fan of Wyckhoff style analysis, this is a prime example of an accumulation phase. If institutional/smart money is coming in, they're creeping in slowly in times like these. One thing I won't be doing is day trading. That's a surefire way for us retail investors to get absolutely rekd in this market. You can do whatever you want.
Anyway, I'm sure a whole lot of people will lambaste me for throwing out FUD and a lack of confidence in this market, but I don't really mind. Throw it at me lol. I wrote this cause I was bored of working on my PhD, so by all means make this more entertaining for me.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.