Some thoughts on the Market.
Updated
dead cat bounce on the 20ema daily.
>> Can't know if old wedge support is at play here; if the large scale support and resistance lines are in play we might see the price action print a symmetrical triangle over the coming weeks.
This would be unorthodox given btc’s usual price action, but I do have a feeling the market is stabilising into a new one!
>> The major reason for the shift in market is the inverse h&s breaking past its projected target to 8,500! Something I don’t think any conservative trader expected, and remembering this, I think this correction we’re seeing is holding a larger consensus that the free fall will continue. Given that emotional bias, another long red candle on the daily is more than a possibility, and to me feels more intuitive…
>> However, something doesn’t sit right with me considering the very short-lived bull run, lasting about 10 days (timing it from the rally of the right shoulder). I don’t think this bull run trapped much retailer money; I believe that was some heavy investor funds + insider money, and no short squeeze to support, that really caused the price to jump 2000 points in 10 days. FOMO hardly got in here.
>> This leads us to another conclusion—this overly steep correction is a shakeout and Market Makers will continue into the new—likely more stable—market phase as the iH&S marks the go.
“But BTC hasn’t finished correcting from the ATH?” Very true, and maybe the blockchain industry is lagging behind for the next market phase to begin. The news about blockchain development, adoption, and adaptation is still reporting a steadier and steadier industry by the day, so I’m not too pessimistic either. The fact that no structured support exists below the iH&S project target, especially as the price sits on a cross-road of three supports as I type this, strengthens my belief the price won't continue down. It would negate the very recent strength at the 6000s in a time of despair; the market showed too much belief there to lose faith at the 7000s.
>> As 7450 sits us on the iH&S projected target, printing the bottom in a strong market. BTC of course is not a strong market, haha, so we must still bite our teeth.
>> No trade, but if you're underwater—have hope.
>> Can't know if old wedge support is at play here; if the large scale support and resistance lines are in play we might see the price action print a symmetrical triangle over the coming weeks.
This would be unorthodox given btc’s usual price action, but I do have a feeling the market is stabilising into a new one!
>> The major reason for the shift in market is the inverse h&s breaking past its projected target to 8,500! Something I don’t think any conservative trader expected, and remembering this, I think this correction we’re seeing is holding a larger consensus that the free fall will continue. Given that emotional bias, another long red candle on the daily is more than a possibility, and to me feels more intuitive…
>> However, something doesn’t sit right with me considering the very short-lived bull run, lasting about 10 days (timing it from the rally of the right shoulder). I don’t think this bull run trapped much retailer money; I believe that was some heavy investor funds + insider money, and no short squeeze to support, that really caused the price to jump 2000 points in 10 days. FOMO hardly got in here.
>> This leads us to another conclusion—this overly steep correction is a shakeout and Market Makers will continue into the new—likely more stable—market phase as the iH&S marks the go.
“But BTC hasn’t finished correcting from the ATH?” Very true, and maybe the blockchain industry is lagging behind for the next market phase to begin. The news about blockchain development, adoption, and adaptation is still reporting a steadier and steadier industry by the day, so I’m not too pessimistic either. The fact that no structured support exists below the iH&S project target, especially as the price sits on a cross-road of three supports as I type this, strengthens my belief the price won't continue down. It would negate the very recent strength at the 6000s in a time of despair; the market showed too much belief there to lose faith at the 7000s.
>> As 7450 sits us on the iH&S projected target, printing the bottom in a strong market. BTC of course is not a strong market, haha, so we must still bite our teeth.
>> No trade, but if you're underwater—have hope.
Note
Looking at the OBV (On Balance Volume) we see some statistical evidence supporting the claim that market faith at 6000s betrays lack of faith at 7000s. The graph below marks two points: the break up form the right shoulder, and the current price. There's a price difference of 600 USD (13%) but the volume to move that price has a difference of 0.
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