Broadcom Inc.Long
Long AVGO at 170.38 - shooting for 1% a day on a quick flip
Updated
AVGO is holding just above a decent support around 167.5 as part of an ascending trangle-ish pattern (if you squint really hard). Longer term, the trend is solidly positive.
In the end, though, for me, it's about it being short term oversold. In the last 12 months, when my algo signals oversold, here's what happened:
25 wins - 2 "losses" (the last 2 days)
Avg gain = +1.83%
Avg holding period = 2.09 days
That's an annualized per lot traded/per day held return of just under 221%. So you see why I'm interested.
I'll add new lots at the close any time it's oversold until the entire position is closed. I will close any lot as soon as it becomes end of day profitable.
OK let's AVGOOOOOOOOOOOO
Ignore the original lot line at 170.45. That should be at 170.38 and I'm not redoing the whole post for that😤
In the end, though, for me, it's about it being short term oversold. In the last 12 months, when my algo signals oversold, here's what happened:
25 wins - 2 "losses" (the last 2 days)
Avg gain = +1.83%
Avg holding period = 2.09 days
That's an annualized per lot traded/per day held return of just under 221%. So you see why I'm interested.
I'll add new lots at the close any time it's oversold until the entire position is closed. I will close any lot as soon as it becomes end of day profitable.
OK let's AVGOOOOOOOOOOOO
Ignore the original lot line at 170.45. That should be at 170.38 and I'm not redoing the whole post for that😤
Trade active
Added another lot at 164.81 at the close. Still oversold. It'll have to work hard now to get me 1% per day held, but I've had far stranger things happen.
Holding lots at:
170.38
164.81
Note
Well that first lot is going to do some heavy lifting if I'm going to get my +1% per day out of this trade. I sold the second lot at the close today for 165.67 (+.50% in 1 day).
Lots currently held:
Lot 1 - 170.38
Note
Added a lot at 163.57 just before the close. Oversold again.
Lots held:
170.38
163.57
Note
Sold the lot purchased yesterday for 164.115 just before the close. +0.33% gain in one trading day.
Lots held:
170.38
Note
Added a lot at 159.67 today at the close. Looks like 1% a day might be a long shot now, but I won't give up on my dreams...
Current lots
170.38
159.67
Note
Sold yesterday's lot today at the close for 162.00, a +1.46% return in 1 trading day. I may not get 1% per day overall (though I still could), but the 3 lots I've closed out have reduced the current loss on the original lot to 2.41%, despite the original lot being down almost 5%, even after today. I have no doubt I'll still make money on this trade, the question is how much and how long it will take. We'll see... Here's hoping for a great week next week for this one!
Cost of lots still held:
170.38
Trade closed: target reached
Sold the final lot after the close for 170.70. It wasn't profitable when I started setting up my closing trades at the end of the day and then shot up in the last 5 minutes of trading, so I missed it and didn't realize what happened until just now. Total gain on this lot was only 0.19%.
Overall the trade was profitable, so I will never complain when that happens, but it was disappointing for sure. The long term average gain per trade with my system on AVGO (over 350+ trades) is 1.67%, thus the lofty goal of 1%/day. A quick one day trade, as about 1/2 of my trades are, would have returned that, in all likelihood. But trades don't always go the way you hope or even expect based on your data. That's why I'll never complain about trades that end up profitable, and all 4 of these did, so hooray!
Final results for each lot traded are as follows:
Lot 1: +0.19% in 13 trading days
Lot 2: +0.52% in 1 trading day
Lot 3: +0.53% in 1 trading day
Lot 4: +1.46% in 1 trading day
I'll summarize the overall results below.
Note
Editorial note: Typo on Lot 3's % gain in the results above. It should read
Lot 1: +0.19% in 13 trading days
Lot 2: +0.52% in 1 trading day
Lot 3: +0.33% in 1 trading day
Lot 4: +1.46% in 1 trading day
Note
Trade summary for my records
Wins - 4
Losses - 0
Average gain per lot = +0.63%
Average holding period per lot = 4 trading days
Average gain per lot per day held = +.156%
Annualized return per lot = .156% x 252 = +39%
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