US CPI, once again, surprised to the upside of expectations in March, sparking a hawkish cross-asset reaction as the balance of risks tilts towards later, and fewer, Fed cuts than markets had expected, as price pressures remain stubbornly high.
Headline CPI rose by 3.5% YoY in March, a significant uptick from the 3.2% YoY pace seen a month prior, and above...
Join Chris Weston as he goes over the trading week ahead and covers what all traders need to be aware of this week:
- Review – the platform
- The landmines ahead
- Charting the markets
The clock ticks down to the Bitcoin halving, which is expected between 19-21 April , with anticipation building that the event could be the next known catalyst to propel the Bitcoin price to new highs.
The question for Bitcoin CFD traders is two-fold:
1. Will the ensuing price action (post-halving) be different from the three prior halving cycles?
2. Will...
What promised to be a monster week of event risk for financial markets certainly lived up to its billing with headlines galore throughout the last five trading days, as equities and the greenback both kicked higher. Nevertheless, despite the noisy nature of the week, the fundamental narrative has changed little, with the path of least resistance for risk assets...
We have a jam packed show this week! Settle in for all your market updates and expert commentary from the Trade Off veterans, Westy and Blake. They're talking FOMC, BoJ/BoE (and how to play the JPY/Nikkei), Gold, Crude, S&P and much more.
After eight years of negative rates, and seventeen years since the last rate hike, the Bank of Japan has finally delivered what was an eagerly-anticipated exit from over a decade of ultra-easy monetary policy; though, frankly, the first steps towards policy normalisation – despite being incredibly significant – came with little fanfare, or subsequent market...
Put USDCHF on the radar - while there are many different ways this could play out this week, here are 2 clear scenario's that are front of mind.
Upside - the fed's 2024 dot moves higher in tomorrows FOMC meeting to show 2 cuts (from 3). We could also see the SNB cut rates - this is a non-consensus call with 4/24 economists calling for a 25bp cut (to 1.5%) and...
Join Chris Weston as he goes over the trading week ahead and covers what all traders need to be aware of this week:
- Review – the platform
- The landmines ahead
- Charting the markets
The markets will come alive this week reacting to the outcomes of an incredible array of tier 1 event risk, with some 14 central bank meetings, including six G10 central bank meetings, as well as numerous emerging market central banks too.
At a more micro level, Nvidia takes centre stage with the highly anticipated GPT conference a potential volatility driver...
Join Chris Weston as he goes over the trading week ahead and covers what all traders need to be aware of this week:
- Review – the platform
- The landmines ahead
- Charting the markets
- 3 most influential markets
After a disappointing labour market report last week, where a blowout nonfarm payrolls print was overshadowed by rather dismal details in the household survey, focus now turns to the February US CPI report, being the last significant piece of the data jigsaw before the March FOMC meeting.
Off the back of hotter than expected inflation figures in January, with...
In the equity space, one of the most notable features of this cycle has been the degree of consternation over narrow market breadth. In other words, the gains that we have seen, especially those that were made in 2023, came due to a substantial rally in a small number of index constituents – a group that we now all know as the ‘magnificent seven’.
There are,...
As gold goes about its business, client volumes on the yellow metal are well above average, and as is typically the way after a solid one-way tear, the net position is now heavily skewed short.
We can see that the price has closed higher for 7 straight days, and subsequently, traders see a heightened probability that we will not see an 8th and that momentum has...
Westy and Blake are back! Markets are frothy, gold and crypto are on the move and we break down the whats and whys, as always, in The Trade Off. Also: ECB, NFP, Silver, SPX, AUDCHF, DAX, Apple/QQQ & CHFJPY. Strap in, this is TTO!
After a quiet start to the week in markets, Friday’s US session saw risk come alive. A poor US ISM manufacturing at 47.8 – notable in the new orders and employment sub-components – was married with comments from Fed members Lorie Logan and Chris Waller, in turn promoting a strong rally in US Treasuries, with additional rate cuts being priced through 2024.
The...
Four years ago this weekend, the Fed delivered an emergency 50bp rate cut to support the US economy which was, at the time, being ravaged by the pandemic and associated ‘lockdown’ restrictions. Less than two weeks later, Powell & Co. – on a Sunday night, no less – slashed rates to near-zero, while also kickstarting a $700bln round of quantitative easing. Of...
Well, what a turnaround it’s been. Just 57 days ago, markets were flat-out ignoring what the FOMC were saying on the policy outlook, and pricing as many as six 25bp rate cuts over the course of the year ahead. Now, less than two months later, the swaps are in line with the dots, as we see money markets implying just 75bp of easing this year, with the first 25bp...
In a world where FX, gold and equity index volatility is subdued, the crypto scene is getting great attention.
Not because we’re seeing volatility per se – that is not statistically the case - where Bitcoin's daily close-to-close percentage changes are seldom greater than 4%. But because of the absolute momentum and trending price action. This is not just true of...
